Abstract

Incidents of cancer in Sudan have been growing in numbers over the last five decades (1967-2010). Using data compiled regularly by radiations isotope of cancer in Khartoum (RICK) - which continued to be the only cancer treatment centre in Sudan for over the last half century- its trend is studied using Box-Jenkins methodology in time series analysis is the optimal method applied to the pattern. This method consists of four steps namely identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Future forecasts drawn show that the number of incidents is likely to continue growing if no significant intervention is made by the health authorities as intervention measures are undertaken to curb it.

Key words: Radiations isotope of cancer in Khartoum (RICK), cancer, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA ) model, stationarity.