African Journal of Political Science and International Relations
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Article Number - 08E87EF5780


Vol.2(1), pp. 013-019 , January 2008

ISSN: 1996-0832



Full Length Research Paper

Ripe without warning: Israel and Egypt 1967-1973


Brian Christopher Nethery Kelly




Social Research Center, American University in Cairo, 11511 Cairo, Egypt


Email: bcnkelly@gmail.com






 Accepted: 12 October 2007  Published: 30 January 2008

Copyright © 2008 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article.
This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0


Ripeness is a situation in which conflicting parties are prepared for peacemaking. Ripeness theory, as applied to international relations, however, tends to be tautological. For Israel and Egypt, the early 1970s were a turbulent period of international relations. The decisions of these two nations, specifically the decisions to go to war, were unexpected and unexplainable given current models of rational choice. Using recently unclassified State Department manuscripts documenting telegram and telephone conversations between US government officials and those of Israel and Egypt, a more accurate explanatory model for decision making is considered. Combining international norm and prospect theory models create a framing device that can better explain the reference point from which decisions were made by the Egyptian and Israeli states during the early 1970s. A better understanding of these decision making processes could potentially lead to an improved method of predicting and recognizing situations of ripeness in international relations.

 

Key words: Decision-making, ripeness theory, prospect theory, October war, Ramadan war, orientalism, deterrence.


APA Nethery Kelly, B. C. (2008). Ripe without warning: Israel and Egypt 1967-1973. African Journal of Political Science and International Relations, 2(1), 013-019.
Chicago Brian Christopher Nethery Kelly. "Ripe without warning: Israel and Egypt 1967-1973." African Journal of Political Science and International Relations 2, no. 1 (2008): 013-019.
MLA Brian Christopher Nethery Kelly. "Ripe without warning: Israel and Egypt 1967-1973." African Journal of Political Science and International Relations 2.1 (2008): 013-019.
   
DOI
URL http://academicjournals.org/journal/AJPSIR/article-abstract/08E87EF5780

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