Journal of Oceanography and Marine Science
Subscribe to JOMS
Full Name*
Email Address*

Article Number - 33C80EB61280

Vol.7(3), pp. 24-32 , October 2016
DOI: 10.5897/JOMS2016.0134
ISSN: 2141-2294

Full Length Research Paper

Estimation of extremes in the southern Arabian Gulf

Thomaskutty Varghese
  • Thomaskutty Varghese
  • Department of Marine Geology, Mangalore University, India.
  • Google Scholar
Shailesh Nayak
  • Shailesh Nayak
  • Department of Marine Geology, Mangalore University, India.
  • Google Scholar
Gangadhara Bhat
  • Gangadhara Bhat
  • Department of Marine Geology, Mangalore University, India.
  • Google Scholar

 Received: 02 August 2016  Accepted: 26 September 2016  Published: 31 October 2016

Copyright © 2016 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article.
This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0

Extreme all-direction wave conditions and joint probabilities of high waves and high water levels are derived at selected locations in the southern Arabian Gulf. The wave conditions are obtained using the spectral wave model SWAN with wind and offshore wave information procured from ocean weather, supplemented with local water level records. Wave transformations from offshore to nearshore and waves generated by local wind conditions are derived using wind speed and direction, offshore wave height, peak period and direction and water level inputs to the SWAN model. The model predicted extreme 3-hourly wind speeds for return periods ranging from 0.06 – 200 years and the wave conditions for each storm. The study indicates that future sea level rise to 2058 gives 1:50, 1:100 and 1:250 return period water levels of 2.64, 2.71 and 2.79 mCD respectively at Jebel Ali.


Key words: Joint probability, extreme water levels, extreme waves, return period, wave modelling.

Abdullah MA (2010). Tide and sea level characteristics at Juaymah, west coast of the Arabian Gulf. King Abdul-Aziz Univ. Mar. Sci. 21:133-149.


Defra / Environment Agency (2005a). Joint probability, Dependence mapping and best practice. Technical Report FD2308/TR1.


Defra / Environment Agency (2005b). Use of joint probability methods in flood management. A guide to best practice. Technical Report FD2308/TR2.


Draper L (1964). Freak ocean waves. Oceanus. 10:13-15.


Draper L (1970). The Canadian wave climate study- the formative years. Proc. 12th Coast. Eng. Conf. ASCE. pp. 1-11.


Draper L (1973). Extreme wave condition in British and adjacent waters. Proc. 13th Coast. Eng. Conf. ASCE. pp. 157-165.


Goda Y (1997). Random wave concept as the tool of engineering practice. Proc. 2nd Indian Nat. Conf. Har. Ocean Eng. 1:1-12.


Hawkes PJ, Gouldby BP, Tawn JA, Owen MW (2010). Joint probability of waves and water levels in coastal engineering design. J. Hydraulic Res. Special Issue Marit. Hydraulics. 40:241-251.


IPCC (2007). Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis. 



Irish JL, Song YK, Chang K (2011). Probabilistic hurricane surge forecasting using parameterised surge response functions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38:L03606.


Kurup PG, Rao AD, Muraleedharan G, Mourani S (2007). Design and operational wave height statistics for extreme sea states. Proc. 4th Indian Nat. Conf. Har. Ocean. Eng. pp. 53-57.


Li CW, Song Y (2005). Correlation of extreme waves and water levels using a third-generation wave model and a 3D flow model. Ocean Eng. 33:635-653.


Mendez FJ, Menendez M, Luce-o A, Losada IJ (2007). Analyzing monthly extreme sea levels with a time-dependent GEV model. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 24:894-911.


Muraleedharan G, Claudia L, Guedes SC, Unnikrishnan NN, Kurup PG (2012). Modeling significant wave height distributions with quantile functions for estimation of extreme wave heights. Ocean Eng. 54:119-131.


Rashed Chowdhury Md, Pao-Shin C, Xin Z, Thomas AS, John JM (2010). Sea level extremes in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands—a coastal hazard scenario to aid in decision analyses. J. Coast Conserv. DOI 10.1007/s11852-010-0086-3.


Shadrin IF (1982). Deformed wave spectrum in the coastal zone. Oceanology 22:694-696.


Sultan SAR, Ahmad F, El-Hassan A (1995). Seasonal variations of the sea level in the central part of the Red Sea. Estuarine. Coast. Shelf Sci. 40:1-8.


Sultan SAR, Ahmad F, Elghribi NM, Al-Subhi AM (2003). An analysis of Arabian Gulf monthly mean sea level. Cont. Shelf Res. 15:11-12.


SWAN (2007). Delft University of Technology, Environmental Fluid Mechanics Section. Version 40.51 AB.


Thom HCS (1971). Asymptotic extreme value distributions of wave heights in the open ocean. J. Mar. Res. 29:19-27.


Haigh ID, Wijeratne EMS, MacPherson LR, Pattiaratchi CB, Mason MS, Crompton RP, George S (2013). Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level. Clim. Dyn. 42(1–2):121-138.


Jain I, Rao AD, Jitendra V, Dube SK (2010). Computation of expected total water levels along the east coast of India. J. Coast. Res. 26(4):681-687.


Coles S (2001). An Introduction to the Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values. Springer Texts in Statistics, Springer- Verlag: London.


Coles S, Simiu E (2003). Estimating uncertainty in the extreme value analysis of data generated by a hurricane simulation model. J. Eng. Mech. 129(11):1288-1294.



APA Thomaskutty, V., Shailesh, N., & Gangadhara, B. (2016). Estimation of extremes in the southern Arabian Gulf. Journal of Oceanography and Marine Science, 7(3), 24-32.
Chicago Thomaskutty Varghese, Shailesh Nayak and Gangadhara Bhat. "Estimation of extremes in the southern Arabian Gulf." Journal of Oceanography and Marine Science 7, no. 3 (2016): 24-32.
MLA Thomaskutty Varghese, Shailesh Nayak and Gangadhara Bhat. "Estimation of extremes in the southern Arabian Gulf." Journal of Oceanography and Marine Science 7.3 (2016): 24-32.
DOI 10.5897/JOMS2016.0134

Subscription Form