African Journal of
Agricultural Research

  • Abbreviation: Afr. J. Agric. Res.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1991-637X
  • DOI: 10.5897/AJAR
  • Start Year: 2006
  • Published Articles: 6363

Full Length Research Paper

Modeling the sensitivity of strategic plans to risks and uncertainties in forest management

Ricardo Rodrigues de Oliveira Neto
  • Ricardo Rodrigues de Oliveira Neto
  • Department of Forest, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa-MG, Brazil.
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Simone Silva
  • Simone Silva
  • Department of Forest, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa-MG, Brazil.
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Ana Carolina de Albuquerque Santos
  • Ana Carolina de Albuquerque Santos
  • Department of Forest, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa-MG, Brazil.
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Rodrigo Vieira Leite
  • Rodrigo Vieira Leite
  • Department of Forest, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa-MG, Brazil.
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José Marinaldo Gleriani
  • José Marinaldo Gleriani
  • Department of Forest, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa-MG, Brazil.
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Helio Garcia Leite
  • Helio Garcia Leite
  • Department of Forest, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa-MG, Brazil.
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Daniel Henrique Breda Binoti
  • Daniel Henrique Breda Binoti
  • DAP Florestal, R. Papa João XXIII, 9 - CEP 36570-000, Viçosa - Minas Gerais, Brazil.
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Aline Edwiges Mazon de Alcântara
  • Aline Edwiges Mazon de Alcântara
  • Celulose Nipo-Brasileira S/A, Rod Br 381, s/n km 172 - CEP 35196-000, Belo Oriente - Minas Gerais, Brazil.
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Leonardo Pereira Fardin
  • Leonardo Pereira Fardin
  • Department of Forest, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, CEP 36570-000, Viçosa-MG, Brazil.
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  •  Received: 20 November 2019
  •  Accepted: 31 January 2020
  •  Published: 29 February 2020

Abstract

Forest operations are associated with products of a biological source and long-term plans. This makes forest management plans affected by market and environmental uncertainties, which can cause differences between the strategic and operational plans. Risks related to disease spread, adverse weather, timber demand, and available capital can cause a reduction in planted areas. It is necessary that forest management plans aim to optimize production and reduce the effects of restrict planting. In this work, a linear programming model was created for long-term forests planning including a variable to restrict planting area. Prescriptions were defined for 6-, 7- and 8-year rotation considering planting or coppicing, creating 60 scenarios varying intensity, period and time of reductions in the planted areas. All scenarios were evaluated by the NPV at the end of the planning horizon. The results showed that the NPV decreased when the planted area was reduced and when the reductions took place at the beginning of the planning horizon. The differences were between 24.1 and 0.07% in relation to the conventional scenario (no planting restriction). The differences were not higher because prescriptions changed from planting to coppice.

Key words: Linear programming, forest planning, planting reduction.