Analysis shows that rainfall is no longer regular in time and space. The rains that began between May and June are now recorded in the second half of July at the beginning of August. In Bader Goula, during the winter season the first rains were recorded in June and spread out until September. At the same time in Marafa (Azagor commune), the first rains fell only in late August and intense rains were recorded in September and October.
Moreover, in most of the areas, the first rains were recorded in April and extended until October, but almost half of the rainfall rains fell in August (197.5 mm in 12 days). The periods of intense heat are characterized by maximum temperatures of up to 50°C in the months of March and April. As a result, 80% of respondents recall that during the dry and cold season, low temperatures occasioned a circle around the fire to warm up and nowadays temperatures are no longer freezing. Thus, result confirms that Tsemogo (2012) describes the shortening of the rainy season that the populations perceive in Dan Sarko comunes (Dakoro). These results are also, similar to the study of Mkoka (2008), which explains that in recent years in Malawi, the seasons have lost their regularity in almost all regions of the country. Rainfall is sometimes one month late or stops early.
Thus, excessive logging and inadequate rainfall coupled with overexploitation of agricultural land has led to a significant reduction in yields. Deficient irrigation subjects the crop to water stress, sometimes throughout the period of decline, which can cause a drop in yield (Mkoka, 2008). In Dakoro, this drop in yield led more than half of the farmers to abandon the maize crop in view of its demand for water and nutrients through the use of fertilizers. A study found that the 2012 drought in the US Midwest reduced the expected maize crop by 25%.
Cultures are also attacked by crop pests that appear to be related to climatic variability and the appearance or disappearance of certain crop pests such as Gerbillus nigériaen, Heliocheilus albipunctella, Pachnoda interrupta, Passer luteus and Quelea quelea. Farmers' perceptions and expertise allow them to assume that, higher temperatures will increase the fertility and growth rate of insect pests and the frequency of epidemics. These perceptions support IFRI's (2009) research which indicates that higher temperatures reduce crop yields while causing weed and parasite proliferation.
Another element of producer vulnerability is the scarcity of water. The depth of the water table varied between 20
and 80 m. The amount of recharge of the wells depends on the precipitation recorded. The spatio-temporal irregularity of precipitation causes a lowering of the water table. Water, a free-access resource becomes the object of speculation and monetarization in the pastoral zone. In addition, all these water resources are threatened with silting and / or rapid drying which modify their regime.
Species sensitive to the impacts of climate change are severely affected because they do not tolerate rainfall deficit and decrease soil fertility. Thus, species such as Hyphaene thebaica, Schlerocarya birrea and Commiphora africana are threatened with extinction in the Dakoro area). These species are considered by villagers to be the most sensitive to the impacts of climate change because they cannot tolerate rainfall deficit and decrease soil fertility (Figure 4).
This perception supports the research of the clearing house of information on biodiversity in Niger, which in 2008 already listed the latter as a species threatened with extinction. Acacia senegal, Cenchrus biflorus, and Hyparrhenia dissoluta are highly endangered. The few remaining samples are resistant to rainfall deficit, degraded soil and, above all, anthropogenic activity in the south of the department, whereas they are almost non-existent towards the north.
3. Socioeconomics dimension of the vulnerability of agro-pastoral farms
In terms of population distribution, the Nation Statistic Indices (NSI) surveys (2013) point out that the Dakoro Department has the highest human concentration of about 18% in the Maradi region. With a population of 5565 and 68,203 inhabitants, respectively in Azagor and Bader Goula, the population pyramid of these districts has a narrowed structure and a gender imbalance with a high proportion of women and young people. Demographic pressure is identified as a pressing factor in the basic livelihoods of agro-pastoralists.
Polygamy is one of the primary drivers of the rising demography in these countries, and majorityof the producers (89%) belong to the socio-ethnic group Hausa. With two, three or even four wives, polygamy thus accentuates the maternity of women in view that each co-wife aspires to have the most heirs who must possess a subsistence capital. This leads to the division of land so that each heir can benefit from an agricultural operation. The land is no longer left fallow because of land saturation to meet ever-demanding needs.
4. Ceremonial practices vulnerability factors
In the Hausa society, traditional ceremonies are usually exorbitantly expensive and often above the means of the household head. Inter and intra-community social relationships influence a strong mobilization of friends and relatives to the ceremony and large attendance means more guests to feed. These obligations sometimes make the host sell his land and / or animals in order to be able to afford the ceremony. The average cost of wedding ceremonies is around 550,000 FCFA, or about 840 €, which is very expensive for a household head who lives on less than one euro a day.
Rural exodus: Vulnerability or adaptation strategy?: Practiced by 15.4% of the producers, the end of the rural works offers the able-bodied men the possibility of migrating towards the receptive zones (Maradi, Nigeria, Libya, Ivory Coast, and Benin), in the quest for greener pastures.
This practice makes the family of the emigrants vulnerable. This is because when the husband goes away without news or sending money back home, women must be resourceful (Maja-Maja) in order to meet the needs of children. As a result, the entire society becomes more vulnerable to disorderliness.
Discrimination and social: A tiny fringe of the community (5%), in particular the "Black Tuaregs ", still admit to living at the mercy of their masters "White Tuareg". The surprising thing is that these black Tuaregs consider this practice as hereditary and dependent on the social system. As a result, slaves do not have access to social benefits such as access to land and livestock. Lack of land / livestock capital coupled with poverty and societal marginality and increases the vulnerability of producers to the impacts of climate variability. Of course, even people living in certain opulence suffer the multifarious effects of vulnerability; these categories nicknamed ‘’the haves" have effective coping mechanisms, which remain the most destructive of the natural ecosystems through their lifestyles. According to a black Tuareg:
“I have no plots of land to cultivate, I just raise my master's animals and carry out all the tasks he requires, and thus I make a living to meet the needs of my family. My children and my wife also work with me and offer the same services to the children and the wife of my master. We are never consulted in the event of decision-making but we are proud of this life because without them life will be difficult for us as they have the money and power”.
Fragility of livelihoods: The main economic activities of the communities include agriculture, livestock, trade and crafts. In Azagor, livestock is practiced by 72% of the producers. On the other hand, in the commune of Bader Goula, agriculture is the first economic activity practiced by almost 86% of households. The main crops are millet, sorghum, cowpea and very low groundnut. This agriculture still retains an extensive character, remaining mainly manual using rudimentary tools (for example hilaire and daba).
Moreover, farmers face the problem of selling their products to neighboring markets or to Dakoro due to lack of access, despite low yields due to seasonal variability. Their added value is diminished by the fact that it is the traders who move from terrain to terrain to stock up that make the most profit. These results corroborate with Sabo (2010), which describes the suffering of producers as to the flow of their products of survival. Trade is developed in the municipality of Azagor by lack of market.
Shopkeepers and street vendors buy their goods from the weekly market in Dakoro or in the town of Bader Goula, where commercial activities are intense (practiced by 35% of producers). Even though craftsmanship still retains a rudimentary character, it remains an important income-generating activity, particularly in the community of Makeraoua (Bader Goula commune) where women engage in mat making and pottery.
In recent years, communities have been under recurrent pressure on their livelihoods. 20 years ago, 97% of farmers lived solely on income generated by agriculture. Today, only 69% of producers are self-supporting. Crop yields decreased drastically from 100 boots / ha (1500 kg / ha) 20 years ago to less than 50 boots / ha (750 kg / ha). If this trend continues, less than 20% of the farmers will harvest 50 boots / ha by 2030. 20 years ago, 75% of the cattle farmers managed to meet almost all their needs with proceeds from livestock, this estimated that about 31% of those who manage to meet the few family needs over a period did not exceed 6 months.
Pastoral resources are heavily threatened by overgrazing and advancing on the agricultural front. Indeed, today beyond the northern limit of the crops defined by Law 61-05 of May 21, 1961, there are new fields. The agricultural front has thus reduced pastoralists by 50 km to the north since 1970s (Hammel, 2001). This compromises the proper functioning of livestock farming, which also suffers disruption in its mobility.
Twenty years ago, majority of producers had mixed herds (cattle, sheep, goats, camels, asins, etc.). Nowadays, the phenomenon of sedentarisation of pastoralist communities is being generalized in places, with the creation of villages whose livestock farming is specially oriented towards sheep and goats: almost half of the producers have no cattle or camels. The equines exist only among the chiefs of Peulh or Tuareg villages. Our results have illustrated that sheep, cattle and goats are more affected by the effects of the changes. These animals have a selective diet with fodder in quantity and in appreciable quality and are less resistant to drought, forage deficit which are very sensitive to epizootics. Camels have a coarse diet, usually consisting of aerial fodder.
The mortality rate due to lack of forage has increased from 5 to 20% in 20 years. In fact, the recurrence of climatic sequences and the shift of the rainy season make the most stunted animals vulnerable (Bonnet and Guibert, 2012). Another factor of vulnerability is the theft of animals causing ethnic conflicts. The main perpetrators are the nomads who come to water their cattle at water points, benefiting from the precarious nature of the conditions that nature impose on the victims (Becerra, 2012). The poor distribution of precipitation, the degradation of water quality and the lowering of the water table had already been demonstrated in 1999 in a study by Madiodio et al. (2004) study on "Reducing West Africa's Vulnerability to Climate Impacts on Water Resources, Wetlands and Desertification", points out that the influence of drought on the acceleration of deforestation and desertification, and by the effect of bumerang in deforestation will accentuate the persistence of the droughts.
