This article provides an in-depth examination of the negotiations surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), utilizing vital theoretical frameworks in transboundary water management, including Hydro-Hegemony, Transboundary Water Interaction (TWI), and Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). As a transformative project on the Nile River, the GERD challenges Egypt's historical dominance over Nile water resources, reshaping regional power dynamics and prompting both conflict and cooperation among Nile Basin countries. The study draws on primary sources, including official documents from the GERD negotiations, and secondary sources, such as academic research, expert analyses, and reports from international organizations involved in water diplomacy. The analysis confirms that the vast majority of the Nile's waters originate from Ethiopia, reinforcing Ethiopia's position in the negotiations. Despite Ethiopia's repeated assurances that the GERD will not compromise the interests of downstream countries, Egypt has sought to extend its influence through alliances, such as with Somalia, which raises concerns about regional stability in the Horn of Africa. The findings indicate that Egypt's proxy strategies are inconsistent with the principles of cooperative water diplomacy. Instead, the study advocates for the application of water diplomacy frameworks that promote shared growth and resource management, urging all parties to move away from confrontational approaches and towards collaborative solutions. The results underline the importance of establishing a legally binding framework that is inclusive and transparent, ensuring that the interests of all riparian states are respected. This article offers detailed insights into the future of water diplomacy in the Nile Basin and provides actionable policy recommendations that could inform similar transboundary water disputes globally.

Keywords: Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Nile Basin, transboundary water management, water diplomacy, Hydro-Hegemony, Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), regional stability