Abstract

Post-harvest losses (PHL) are one of the major challenges faced by smallholder farmers, particularly in developing countries. Global food losses are estimated at 14%, with an annual value of USD 400 billion. Unfortunately, most interventions, such as the use of hermetic storage bags, silos, and tarpaulins, have seen limited adoption at scale. Therefore, this study identifies the predictors of maize losses due to post-harvest losses among smallholder farmers in Uganda. Using cross-sectional secondary data from 411 smallholder maize farmers who participated in baseline studies conducted by the Agricultural Business Initiative (aBi), this research examines the factors influencing the quantity of maize lost after harvest. Descriptive statistics were used to develop a typology of smallholder farmers and determine the financial value of post-harvest losses in maize production. A Heckman 2-step model was employed to assess the predictors of the quantity of maize lost through post-harvest losses. The findings revealed that the quantity of maize harvested, the quantity of maize sold, the Market Participation Ratio (MPR), and awareness of post-harvest handling (PHH) practices for maize are key predictors of maize losses among smallholder farmers. Only the MPR was found to have a negative relationship with the quantity of maize lost after harvest, while the other predictors (quantity of maize harvested, quantity sold, MPR, and awareness of PHH practices) all had a positive relationship. Policies and development initiatives aimed at increasing maize production and raising awareness about PHH in maize among smallholder farmers are unlikely to effectively reduce post-harvest losses if they are not implemented alongside interventions that enhance the financial capacity of these farmers. The findings also suggest that the Government of Uganda and its development partners should focus on increasing maize production among smallholder farmers, as they are particularly vulnerable to post-harvest losses. To reduce these losses, it is crucial to promote the commercialization of the maize value chain.

Key words: Post-harvest losses, Heckman 2-step, ordinary least squares, smallholder maize farmers, Uganda.