Journal of
Development and Agricultural Economics

  • Abbreviation: J. Dev. Agric. Econ.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 2006-9774
  • DOI: 10.5897/JDAE
  • Start Year: 2009
  • Published Articles: 527

Full Length Research Paper

Food crop supply in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change

Elodie Blanc
  • Elodie Blanc
  • Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, E19-439L, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA
  • Google Scholar


  •  Accepted: 17 July 2013
  •  Published: 30 September 2013

Abstract

 

This study estimates the impact of climate change on supply for the four most common crops (millet, maize, sorghum and cassava) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis relates crop supply, measured as cropped area, to weather, climate and prices. Crop supply functions are estimated using an error correction model (ECM) built on panel data. Crop supply through 2100 is predicted by combining estimates from the panel data analysis with climate change predictions from 20 general circulation models (GCMs). Results indicate climate change impacts on crop supplies ranging from -20 to +133% compared to a scenario of no climate change.

 

Key words: Food crop supply, climate change, error correction model.