The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the rice market in the Godavari and Krishna zones of Andhra Pradesh, India, with disruptions arising from the nationwide lockdown coinciding with the harvest season. This study examines the price dynamics of rice in wholesale and retail markets during pre- and post-lockdown periods, using secondary daily price data collected from 762 observations each for wholesale and retail markets across both zones. Employing a multi-stage sampling procedure, 60 rice millers-cum-wholesalers and 100 retailers were purposively and randomly selected, reflecting the zones' substantial contributions to the state's rice area (55.09%) and production (58.08%). The Levene test revealed that price variability tripled during the post-lockdown period, accompanied by a pronounced widening of the price range in both wholesale and retail markets. Interrupted time series analysis identified significant structural breaks and confirmed that the lockdown triggered immediate price surges, with retail prices increasing more sharply than wholesale prices. These price escalations persisted even after the lockdown ended on June 1, 2020, illustrating the long-lasting effects on supply chain dynamics. The findings underscore the critical role of government interventions in stabilizing the rice market during this crisis, including relief measures and supply chain infrastructure development, which mitigated adverse impacts and enhanced resilience. While focused on two zones, this research provides broader insights into the challenges faced by agricultural markets during the pandemic, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning to address future disruptions in food supply chains.

Keywords: COVID-19, price volatility, structural break, wholesale price, retail price, nterrupted time-series