Abstract

This study explores the critical issue of urban territorial evolution from town to city status in Dodoma, Tanzania, and its impact on the emergence of unecological urban villagization and land cover changes from 1998 to 2022 in the Dodoma City locality—a topic that remains underexplored in Tanzanian cities. Empirical evidence for this study was gathered by interviewing 384 respondents across 17 wards and 56 sub-wards, and by analyzing Landsat satellite images from the years 1998, 2008, 2018, and 2022 using the Semi-Automatic Classification Plugin (SCP) in Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) software (version 3.12.3). Between 1974 and 2024, Dodoma City experienced significant urban expansion, with the built-up area extending from 3 to 50 km from the Central Business District (CBD). Urban areas increased from 0.9 to 78.4% of the total city area. From 1998 to 2022, built-up land grew by 60%, while bare land, vegetation, and water areas decreased by 23, 13, and 1%, respectively. During this period, the number of rural villages dropped from 111 to none, urban villages rose from 33 to 74, and urban sub-wards expanded from 40 to 148. Without adopting green building concepts, New Urbanism, and ecological modernization, Dodoma City risks undermining its resilience and sustainability by 2030. To address this, the integration of ecological modernization concepts into urban development is recommended.

Key words: Urban territorial regionalisation, urban villagization, land cover changes, and un ecological.