Journal of
Public Health and Epidemiology

  • Abbreviation: J. Public Health Epidemiol.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 2141-2316
  • DOI: 10.5897/JPHE
  • Start Year: 2009
  • Published Articles: 613

Full Length Research Paper

A longitudinal data analysis on risk factors for developing type-2 diabetes mellitus at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Gondar, Ethiopia

Asrat Atsedeweyn Andargie
  • Asrat Atsedeweyn Andargie
  • Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia.
  • Google Scholar
Melkamu Ayana Zeru
  • Melkamu Ayana Zeru
  • Department of Statistics, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia.
  • Google Scholar

  •  Received: 10 February 2018
  •  Accepted: 28 March 2018
  •  Published: 30 June 2018


Diabetes mellitus is a group of metabolic chronic diseases characterized by high blood sugar levels with multi-system complications. The objective of this study was to assess the risk factors for developing type-2 diabetes mellitus over time in their random blood sugar and to obtain better predictive model for type 2 diabetes patients’ random blood sugar (RBS) level in the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A retrospective cohort study with a total of 330 diabetic patients who have been active in the follow-up treatment for at least 3 times in three month interval in the hospital from February 2014 to February 2016 was conducted. Linear mixed effects model for longitudinal data were employed to measure the changes in RBS level. The results revealed that the linear distribution trend in the mean RBS level accounted for 79% of the variability in the data and the mean RBS level decreased over time. Age, residence, family history, alcohol intake, dietary type, BMI, treatment, exercise and education status were the significant factors for the change in mean RBS level of the diabetes patients over time. The study also confirmed that among the factors of RBS level included in the study, meat dietary type, patients who do not perform exercise, and body mass index (BMI) were positively correlated with the RBS level while the rest were negatively correlated. It was significant for the patients to do daily self-care activities to prevent long term complications. The government should also contribute to the education of communities to spread awareness creation and enhance prevention mechanisms of diabetes.

Key words: Diabetes mellitus, blood sugar, linear mixed effect, longitudinal data analysis, random blood sugar (RBS).