Journal of
Public Health and Epidemiology

  • Abbreviation: J. Public Health Epidemiol.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 2141-2316
  • DOI: 10.5897/JPHE
  • Start Year: 2009
  • Published Articles: 662

Full Length Research Paper

Evaluating a novel predictive tool for respiratory infection outbreaks in real life

Eleni Rousogianni
  • Eleni Rousogianni
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Garyfallia Perlepe
  • Garyfallia Perlepe
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Eleftherios Meletis
  • Eleftherios Meletis
  • Faculty of Public and One Health, University of Thessaly, 43100 Karditsa, Greece.
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Stylianos Boutlas
  • Stylianos Boutlas
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Irene Poulakida
  • Irene Poulakida
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Georgia Rapti
  • Georgia Rapti
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Evdoxia Gouta
  • Evdoxia Gouta
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Eleni Mpaltopoulou
  • Eleni Mpaltopoulou
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Giorgos Mpaltopoulos
  • Giorgos Mpaltopoulos
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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Dimitrios Papagiannis
  • Dimitrios Papagiannis
  • Public Health and Vaccines Laboratory, Department of Nursing, School of Health Sciences, University of Thessaly, 41110 Larissa, Greece.
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Polychronis Kostoulas
  • Polychronis Kostoulas
  • Faculty of Public and One Health, University of Thessaly, 43100 Karditsa, Greece.
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Konstantinos I. Gourgoulianis
  • Konstantinos I. Gourgoulianis
  • Department of Respiratory Medicine, School of Medicine, University Hospital of Larissa, 41500 Larissa, Greece.
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  •  Received: 05 August 2024
  •  Accepted: 19 September 2024
  •  Published: 30 November 2024

Abstract

Respiratory infections remain a significant public health threat with considerable morbidity and mortality, highlighting the need for effective early warning tools. This study aims to evaluate the Epidemic Volatility Index (EVI) as a real-life early warning tool for respiratory infections. From October 16, 2023, to February 4, 2024, adults with respiratory infection symptoms were studied at the hospital, with nasal specimens collected and infections requiring hospitalization documented. The proportion of infections due to specific viruses and EVI’s real-time warnings were assessed. Among 948 adults tested, positive results were: 23.52% for Flu-A, 0.11% for Flu-B, 18.46% for SARS-CoV-2, 2.43% for RSV, and 0.74% for Adenovirus. A total of 54.75% of tests yielded negative results. Hospital admissions were 159 (16.77%), with 23.27% for Flu-A, 13.21% for SARS-CoV-2, 3.77% for RSV, and 0.63% for Adenovirus. During the Flu-A outbreak, diagnosed cases (59.7%) outnumbered undiagnosed ones (40.3%). EVI provided a warning 14 days before a surge in Flu-A and SARS-CoV-2 cases. EVI’s timely alerts can assist healthcare systems in preparing for surges, ensuring adequate resources and staff availability. These tools facilitate rapid response, resource allocation, and international collaboration, minimizing the impact of health crises.

Key words: EVI; respiratory infections; rapid tests; public health; Flu-A; SARS-CoV-2.