February 2019

The optimal forecast model for Ghana’s inflation: A stochastic approach

Inflation tends to be a relatively persistent process, which means that current and past values should be helpful in forecasting future inflation. Applying this intuition, we construct a basic stochastic model which exploits information embedded in past values of Ghana’s inflation data. Therefore the aim of this study is not to identify the drivers of Ghana’s inflation, but to identify and forecast with the...

Author(s): Francis Delali Baeta, John Tumaku and Emanuel Kwame Ahiave