May 2015

Stochastic simulation analysis of sustainable public debt in Zimbabwe

This paper applies dynamic stochastic simulation methods to assess sustainable public debt management policies in Zimbabwe. The methodology applied involves estimating a fiscal reaction function and using it to simulate public debt path using a stochastic approach and historical information on drivers of public debt accumulation and their volatility. The results from the baseline scenario show that Zimbabwe’s...

Author(s): Nebson Mupunga and Pierre Le Roux

May 2015

Human resource development as a correlate of performance of the banking industry in Ogun State, Nigeria

The study examined human resource development as a correlate of performance of the banking industry in Ogun State. Primary and secondary data were used in the study. Primary data were collected from the sampled commercial banks’ staff in Abeokuta metropolis while secondary data were sourced from published 2012 and 2013 Financial Statements of commercial banks. Data were analysed using Ordinary Least Squares and...

Author(s): Sowunmi, Sakirat Ololade, Eleyowo, Israel Olusegun, Salako, Mudashiru Abiodun and Oketokun, Fatai Olalekan

May 2015

Optimizing the monthly crude oil price forecasting accuracy via bagging ensemble models

The study investigates the accuracy of bagging ensemble models (i.e., bagged artificial neural networks (BANN) and bagged regression trees (BRT)) in monthly crude oil price forecasting. Two ensemble models are obtained by coupling bagging and two simple machine learning models (i.e., artificial neural networks (ANN) and classification and regression trees (CART)) and results are compared with those of the single ANN and...

Author(s): Hacer Yumurtaci AydoÄŸmuÅŸ, Aykut Ekinci, Halil Ä°. Erdal and Hamit Erdal