African Journal of
Medical and Health Sciences

OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE FEDERAL TEACHING HOSPITAL, ABAKALIKI, NIGERIA
  • Abbreviation: Afr. J. Med. Health Sci.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 2384-5589
  • DOI: 10.5897/AJMHS
  • Start Year: 2017
  • Published Articles: 63

Article in Press

The Coronavirus Disease Pandemic and The Basic Reproduction Number (R0) In Nigeria: What Does the Data Reveal?

Onwube Onyebuchi, Ohalete Precious and Yakubu Joy Asma’u

  •  Received: 11 October 2021
  •  Accepted: 03 June 2022
Nigeria continues to record increasing number of persons infected with the coronavirus disease. Within the African region, Nigeria has the second-highest number of infected persons after South Africa, representing 9.95% of the region’s total coronavirus disease cases as at June 1, 2020, despite its strict containment measures. With the fears of a second wave of the coronavirus (the COVID-19 Delta Virus), another lockdown might be likely. But can we establish a correlation between infected persons and those prone to infection (susceptible) as well as the correlation strength in Nigeria? Using both a descriptive and econometric technique, the study analyzed the reality of the transmission rate and the rising figures of the coronavirus infections and found that there exists a weak correlation between the infected and the susceptible and that the basic reproduction number (R0) is less than 1 suggesting that the rate of transmission is low and the virus might not be endemic. The study, therefore, recommends that the containment measures of sanitizing/washing hands, social distancing, and using face coverings are just enough to stem the tide. However, sustained lockdown measures will be too costly for the economy and a second lockdown will be highly unnecessary.

Keywords: Health, COVID-19, Basic Repruction Number, Nigeria.