This paper studies the problem of finding a priori optimal paths to guarantee a maximum likelihood of arriving on-time in a stochastic time-varying transportation network. The reliable path can help travelers better plan their trip by measuring the risk of late under uncertain conditions. We first identify a set of mathematical relationships between the on-time arrival probability, mean and variance of the dynamic and stochastic link travel times on the networks. The arriving time of each node can be computed by using central limit theorem for its independent link travel time. We show that the time varying problem is decomposable with respect to arrival times and therefore can be solved as easily as its static counterpart. An efficient algorithm is also proposed in the paper. Numerical results are provided using typical transportation networks.
Key words: Stochastic time-varying transportation networks, on-time arrival probability, solution algorithm, route choice, mathematical model.
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