This last decade is marked by the multiplication of free trade agreements signed by Morocco whose goal is to achieve its integration into international trade. The move to a highly administered floating exchange regime is also part of this process of liberalization and integration. We propose to study the relationship between the official exchange rate and international trade. The estimation of the VAR model allows us to identify the relationships between the variables retained, which are the official exchange rate, gross domestic product, inflation, exports of goods and services, and imports. We will study the co-integration of Johansen. We use the Granger causality test to determine causality. Our results confirm the conclusion of the absence of a significant link between the official exchange rate, imports and exports. It is also concluded that fluctuations in the official exchange rate generate only inflation.
Keywords: Official exchange rate, international trade, co-integration, VAR modeling, Granger causality, Morocco.