February 2019
The optimal forecast model for Ghana’s inflation: A stochastic approach
Inflation tends to be a relatively persistent process, which means that current and past values should be helpful in forecasting future inflation. Applying this intuition, we construct a basic stochastic model which exploits information embedded in past values of Ghana’s inflation data. Therefore the aim of this study is not to identify the drivers of Ghana’s inflation, but to identify and forecast with the...
January 2019
Gender difference in poverty: An empirical analysis in Bench Maji, Kaffa and Sheka zones, south west Ethiopia
This paper investigated whether female headed households are poorer than male headed households in south west Ethiopia. The study employed 395 sample household questionnaires based on consumption expenditure data. The poverty measurement indices show that female headed households are more exposed for poverty than male-headed households. This result is also supported by the logistic regression output which indicates that...
January 2019
Impact of credit risk on corporate financial performance: Evidence from listed banks on the Ghana stock exchange
A bank’s financial performance and survival can be threatened when there is an increased exposure to credit risk. On this basis, this study seeks to identify the factors that determine the level of bank credit risk and further estimates the effects of bank credit risk on corporate financial performance using financial data from banks on the Ghana Stock Exchange over a 15-year period from 2003 to 2017. Using the...
December 2018
The effect of real effective exchange rate on balance of payments in Ethiopia: A co-integrated VAR approach
This study investigated the relationship between real effective exchange rate and balance of payment in Ethiopia using annual data spanning the period of 1976 to 2015. The analysis was based on a cointegrated vector autoregressive approach. The methodology of the study begins with Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity tests of the data and the Johansen cointegration rank test that revealed current account, real gross...
November 2018
Determinants of tax revenue in East African countries: An application of multivariate panel data cointegration analysis
Domestic revenue mobilization has received growing attention in recent years as it has crucial national and international dimensions for sub-Saharan African (SSA) and East African countries. In most countries, tax has not increased with increasing development expenditures. In place, the share of tax revenue to gross domestic product (GDP) is declining and countries constantly rely on foreign capital inflow...
October 2018
Assessment of the relationship between leverage and performance: An empirical study of unlisted banks in Ghana
This study contrasts empirical studies which had focused on listed bank at the detriment of unlisted banks. In other to enhance public confidence in the banking sector and ensure financial inclusion, this study examined the relationship between leverage and performance of unlisted banks in Ghana. This study examined the relationship between leverage, other moderating variables and bank performance by collecting data...
September 2018
Consumption patterns among individual households in Nasarawa State, Nigeria
The need for economic theory to address the problem of unsustainable consumption patterns in a developing economy, Nigeria cannot be overemphasized. The literature suggests that present consumption patterns which use up economic resources beyond the capacity of the environment to replenish may make development unsustainable. This study analyzed consumption behavior vis-à-vis the factors that weakly or strongly...
August 2018
The Importance of financial reporting to capital market development in Ghana
The finance literature suggest that investment decisions are largely influenced by the quality of corporate financial information released by firms in their financial statements, and that capital market participants use corporate financial information released by firms for investment decisions. Factors that influence the development of capital markets in developing markets include: appropriate legal and regulatory...
August 2018
Drivers of economic growth in Ethiopia: Does foreign aid and policy complementarity matter?
The main research question here is to address drivers of economic growth in Ethiopia using the time series data from 1970 to 2016 where the complementarity of aid and policy index is critically assessed. The empirical result from cointegration test confirms the existence of long run relationship among the variables entered in the per capita growth equation. In the long run, foreign aid inflow entered alone has a...
July 2018
Sovereign treasury solvency and financial performance management in Nigeria
The paper assessed sovereign treasury solvency and financial performance management in Nigeria from 1999 through 2016. The aim of this study is to determine the degree of solvency in Nigeria’s sovereign treasury. Ex-post ‘facto’ empirical analysis is the research method employed. Financial analysis was employed with financial performance indicators; descriptive statistics, econometric evaluation...
June 2018
Does behavior of clients matter in adoption of internet banking? Evidence from Commercial Bank of Ethiopia
This study identifies underlying behavioral drivers and impediments of adopting internet banking. Primary data was collected using questionnaire survey from 123 sample clients of three selected branches of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia. Behavioral aspects of clients attributable to the adoption of internet banking were solicited and subjected to binary logistic regression analysis. The findings of the study showed that...
June 2018
The effect of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate convergence on exchange rate volatility in search for the East African monetary union
So far, the formation of a monetary union in the East African Community (EAC) has remained elusive. The EAC partner states therefore established set targets for macroeconomic convergence, with an aim to eliminate exchange rate variability within the bloc. Where countries are able to eliminate or reduce exchange rate adjustments to maintain external balance, the costs of a monetary union reduces, thus the more suitable...
May 2018
Institutions’ effect on households’ savings in Kenya: A ranked ordered multinomial/conditional probit model approach
Savings is a vital source of investment funds especially for developing economies. However, like in many developing countries, domestic savings in Kenya remain low. Hence, posing a significant development challenge. Household savings contribute a sizeable share of domestic and national savings in both industrial and developing countries. Households should not however, be considered as fully autonomous actors without the...
April 2018
China’s trade intensity with South Asian countries
The study seek to explore the extent and nature of trade and its growth over the period 2005 to 2013 between China and its five South Asian neighbours (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal). We measure the extent of trade by the trade intensity index and then check whether whole of this is explained by complementarity in the conventional sense. The study reveals that China’s trade intensity increased...
March 2018
Determinants and its extent of rural poverty in Ethiopia: Evidence from Doyogena District, Southern part of Ethiopia
This study identifies the extent and determinants of rural poverty in southern Ethiopia, Doyogena district. The study used 150 households, using a household consumption expenditure approach by employing the FGT (Foster-Greer and Thorbecke, 1984) poverty index to determine the extent of rural poverty. The study’s result shows that the total head count index, poverty gag, and poverty severity indexes are 0.438,...
February 2018
The Ivorian Debt: Should we worry?
The objective of this paper is to shed light on Cote d’Ivoire’s indebtedness and see to what extent, the country’s current level of debt is worrisome. This research is parametric using a time series data spanning from 1970 to 2015 to investigate the debt and growth nexus. After investigating the time series characteristics of the data, it was found that the variables were I(1) and co-integrated....
January 2018
Borrowers’ characteristics, credit terms and loan repayment performance among clients of microfinance institutions (MFIs): Evidence from rural Uganda
The purpose of this study is to investigate the contribution of borrowers’ characteristics and credit terms on loan repayment performance of MFIs in rural areas of Uganda. This study is cross sectional and correlational. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey of 51 MFIs in Uganda. Results indicate that there is a significant relationship between credit terms and loan repayment performance among clients...
December 2017
Birr devaluation and its effect on trade balance of Ethiopia: An empirical analysis
This study examined the effect of Birr devaluation on trade balance of Ethiopia for the period 1970-2014 using the Vector Error Correction Model. The key results of the present study revealed that Birr devaluation deteriorates the trade balance of Ethiopia in the short run and improves it in the long run. Moreover, the result from the long and short run models showed that real effective exchange rate, money supply,...
December 2017
Demand-driven determinants and self-reported barriers to financial inclusion in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)
“Access to finance for all” has gained attention in the international development agenda in recent years. In the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the issue of financial inclusion is set at the level of priority but in several dimensions of financial inclusion, countries of the union lag behind the Sub-Saharan Africa and Asian benchmark countries. In this paper, factors that are important for...
November 2017
A research on the gravity model of China’s oil trade in the strategic context of “One Belt One Road”
With the increasing energy demand along with China’s economic development, the external dependence on China’s oil supply keeps rising. In the foreseeable future, China’s oil trade will still center on importing. Under the background of China’s “One Belt One Road” strategy, the essay establishes a trade gravity model for oil importing trade in China. Through multiple linear regression...
October 2017
Public debt and financial stability: The case of economic community and monetary union of central Africa (EMCCA)
This article analyzes the relationships between public debt and financial stability. Unlike traditional approaches based on linear panels (dynamic or static), we estimate a nonlinear regime change panel (PSTR) characterizing the relationships between public debt and financial stability for the member countries of the Economic Community, and Monetary Union of Central Africa (EMCCA). The results show that the public debt...
September 2017
Determinants of efficiency in the Ghanaian banking industry
The twin forces of technological advancement and deregulation have led to financial integration and increased competition in the Ghanaian banking industry. This situation requires an extensive study into efficiency and its determinants in the Ghanaian banking sector, if Ghanaian banks are to survive and compete effectively in the global financial system. This study tries to determine the main determinants of efficiency...
July 2017
Gender-wise determinant of informal sector employment in Jigjiga town: A cross sectional study
This study indicates that in Jigjiga, the informal sector clearly plays a buffer role. From sampled respondent, the researcher analyzed the participants in the informal sector and tries to compare their earnings based on the activities they transact and the amount of income they earn. The study revealed that the average monthly earning of both gender was far better than some formal sector activities. Thus, the legal...
July 2017
International financial centres, global finance and financial development in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC)
The study evaluates the effects of global/international finance on financial development, as well as analyse the options for enhancing the flow of global finance, in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region. The study is motivated by the seemingly disconnection between global finance and international financial centres and financial development in the SADC region. The study uses a cross-country dynamic...
June 2017
Bank efficiency and default risk: The case of Ghana
There seem to be inconclusive results regarding the interactions between bank efficiency, default risk and bank capital. This study tries to assess the dynamic interactions between efficiency estimates, default risk and bank capital in the Ghanaian banking industry, using bank specific panel data for 20 Ghanaian banks from 2007 to 2015. We employ panel vector autoregressive models (VAR) models which are estimated using...
June 2017
The impact of capital flight from beautiful places: The case of the small open economy of Trinidad and Tobago
This paper examines the relationship among capital flight, domestic investment and economic growth in the small resource based economy of Trinidad and Tobago. The study utilized capital flight estimates from previous work. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) combing short run and long run analysis is presented. The results confirm the a priori expectation that the financial haemorrhage of capital flight is a...
May 2017
The effects of remittances outflows on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: Empirical evidence
Within the last decade, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) achieved a high economic rate of growth of about 5.5% per year. Consequently, the number of immigrants grew rapidly reaching 9 million, which resulted in an increase in worker remittances out of the Kingdom. Since then, the KSA has become one of the first countries of the world in terms of remittances outflows and coming third worldwide after the USA and Russia...
April 2017
Budgeting for development: Lessons from 2013 capital budget implementation in Nigeria
Adopting the descriptive approach, this study examined the performance of 2013 capital budget in Nigeria in line with attainment of the transformation agenda in the country. The findings suggest that the level of capital budget implementation is insufficient to foster the desired development. This poor performance is attributable to inadequacy in the budget implementation plans, non-release or late release of budgeted...
March 2017
Exports and economic growth in Togo
The pursuit of high and sustained economic growth is one of the major concerns of States, especially those in the process of developing their economic development. Thus, in the pursuit of economic growth, several studies have often been conducted on a number of macroeconomic policies for the determination of sources of growth. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of exports on the growth of the Togolese...
February 2017
Bank efficiency and stock returns
Increased competition and globalization have made it imperative for banks to achieve high efficiency in order to generate required returns. This paper investigates the relationship between bank efficiency estimates, derived from both Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and share prices of banks listed on the Ghana stock exchange. The results give an indication that changes in cost and...
January 2017
Causality between economic growth and changes of the real exchange rate in Côte d'Ivoire
This study aims to analyze the relationship between changes in the real effective exchange rate and economic growth in Côte d'Ivoire. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test were used. The data cover the period 1980 to 2012. The results conclude the existence of a long-term relationship between economic growth and variation in the real effective exchange rate and...
December 2016
Can Cameroon become an emerging economy by the year 2035? Projections from univariate time series analysis
Cameroon is among the African countries aspiring to become an emerging economy by the year 2035. Therefore, projecting into the future by policy makers in order to know the right course of action is imperative. The objective of this study is to identify a good forecasting model that can predict Cameroon’s future economic growth rate and to ascertain whether policy makers could maintain a steady and sustainable...
December 2016
Petroleum resources and Nigeria’s poverty profile
Nigeria as one of the oil producing and resource rich nations in sub-Sahara Africa, with her considerable contribution to the world total oil output still maintained high level of poverty among her teeming population. The present development in the oil industry has demanded for an empirical investigation into why despite the endowed petroleum resources, the Nigeria’s poverty level has not positively improved. The...
November 2016
Entrepreneurial distance: A novel evaluation tool of entrepreneurial intention
Entrepreneurship and new business creation drive economic growth and employment generation. In this study we have developed a new way to evaluate entrepreneurial intention by looking at the respondents’ opinion towards entrepreneurs and their own self-reported abilities. We have coined this methodology as the entrepreneurial distance. This study is based in an international sample of 264 respondents gathered...
November 2016
Factors affecting U.S. current account deficit: An empirical evidence
The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of the major macroeconomic indicators on U.S. current account deficit. Using the quarterly data from January 1973 to April 2013, this study attempts to examine whether those factors are truly the cause of massive current account deficit in the United States. We have considered a range of variables such as inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, and the gross...
October 2016
The pricing of illiquidity risk on emerging stock exchange markets: A portfolio panel data analysis
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the main role of liquidity in stock pricing on African emerging stock markets. The study applies portfolios panel data analysis to modify and adapt the existing estimation process. Using three different procedures, six portfolios have been constructed base on the 32 most active stocks on the so called BRVM; the measures of liquidity considered are the turnover and the...
August 2016
Semi-Markovian credit risk modeling for consumer loans: Evidence from Kenya
Based on simulations of implied values for credit worthiness over a period of 5 years for 1000 consumers, the study shows robustness of the Semi-Markovian models in forecasting Probabilities of Default and Loss Given Default for a portfolio of consumer loans. The study models credit risk as a reliability problem on the basis of which we generate credit risk indicators and quantify prospective capital holding based on...
August 2016
Macroeconomic variables and stock market performance of emerging countries
This article seeks to fill the gap of severe data limitations on the link between macroeconomic variables and stock market performance. A panel data of 41 emerging countries for the period 1996 to 2011 was used to estimate the results. The model used by Sangmi and Mubasher (2013) was adopted and modified to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock market capitalization. The four techniques to investigate...
July 2016
Poverty incidence in Nigeria: Does financial deepening matter?
Economic policies in every nation strive to attain basic macroeconomic goals, one of which is poverty reduction. The paper examines empirically whether or not financial deepening has played a significant role in poverty alleviation effort in Nigeria for the period 1990 to 2013. Utilizing both quantitative and descriptive analyses, the paper estimated three models in which poverty rates for the rural areas, urban areas...
July 2016
The determinants of interest rate spread: Empirical evidence from the Central African economic and monetary community
In spite of the reforms undertook during the 1980s and 1990s in favour of financial deepening, the spread between the lending rate and the deposit rate is still high in the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC). Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of banking spread in those countries. In that vein, the study employs two-step regression proposed by Ho...
July 2016
Empirical evidence on capital structure determinants in Nigeria
The purpose of this paper is to investigate empirical evidence on capital structure determinants in Nigeria. This research has been performed using a sample of 50 companies listed on the Nigeria Stock Exchange from 2001 to 2010. The relationship between the short-term and long-term debt and four explanatory variables were observed. The results of the cross-sectional OLS regression revealed that the static trade-off...
July 2016
Bank lending behavior and economy financing in CEMAC countries: Should we grease the wheel?
For the proponents of the “greasing the wheel” position, in the context of market imperfections, corruption helps in alleviating distortions in the credit market, facilitates access to bank credit and promotes the financing of the economy. The aim of this paper was to interrogate the impact of corruption on bank lending behavior in CEMAC countries, not only ranked among the most corrupt economies in the...
June 2016
Growth and corruption in Arab countries: What type of relationship connects them?
This study aims to investigate the relationship between corruption and growth in the context of the Arab world. By controlling the different variables that affect growth, the study tries to focus on how corruption could have affected growth and in which way. The literature leans towards corruption having a negative impact on growth and development, however such view is not pervasive as there are some arguments...
May 2016
Impact of external debt on the productive efficiency in Togo economy
The objective of this study is to measure the productive efficiency of the external debt of the Togo economy. To do this, the technique of stochastic production frontier used by Drine and Nabi was used to assess the contribution of different factors, especially external debt to the productivity performance over the period from 1980 to 2012. The study results confirm the non-linear effect of external indebtedness on...
March 2016
Towards sustainable financing models for micro-hydro plants in Sub-Saharan African countries: A theoretical review
Micro-hydro plants (MHPs) have been identified as a proven and promising opportunity to alleviate energy poverty in rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the absence of “lowest-cost, long-term financing models” is found to be one of the major barriers to wide-spread adoption of this technology in the region. This paper presents a review of the factors underlying this absence and using the van Egmond...
February 2016
Effects of selected socio-economic factors and elections spending on aggregate savings (total deposits) in Ghana
Savings as a tool for domestic capital accumulation in developing countries has come under serious consideration in economic and financial development. However, savings in Ghana is characterized by very low tendencies, irregular trend and unenthusiastic attitudes of citizens towards it at the micro and macro levels. This study examined the effect of economic factors, election spending and health financing scheme on...
January 2016
Benefit-cost analysis for sustainable water management in Beijing
Since 2000, large numbers of water reuse systems have been constructed to solve the water scarcity in Beijing. However, the operations of these systems are not well as expected. The paper will conduct an analysis of economic and social impacts of water reuse systems in Beijing. The aim is to find out whether the systems have positive economic and social impacts or not. If the systems bring negative economic and social...
October 2015
Savings, investment and economic growth in Lesotho: An empirical analysis
This paper empirically examines the relationship among saving, investment and economic growth in Lesotho for the period 1970 to 2012, with a view to contributing to the body of literature on this topic and informing economic policy design in Lesotho. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) based Granger causality test; the paper finds...
September 2015
Modelling extreme volatility in the daily exchange rates of the Kenya shilling against the U.S. dollar
This study used extreme value theory to establish if the volatility witnessed in the exchange rate of the Kenya Shilling against the U.S. dollar in the period 1999 to 2013 could have been predicted and also determine if the long-term stability in the exchange rate was violated in the period. The peak over threshold model is applied to the tail of the volatility process of exchange rate returns of the Kenya Shilling...
September 2015
Effects of credit constraints on the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises in Cameroon
This paper assesses the determinants and effects of credit constraints on the productivity of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Cameroon. Use is made of the Cameroon enterprise survey data collected by the World Bank in 2009 and an endogenous switching regression model. Results show that interest rates, size of enterprise, size of loan, size of collateral, maturity of loans and legal status of enterprises are...
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