Abstract

Black pod disease (BPD) is reputed for its regular occurrence in Africa and around the world with high propensity for massive destruction of cocoa pods in the field and total yield loss per season if proper management strategies are not applied. This research was designed to provide useful and timely information on BPD outbreak, its intensity and specific areas expected to be massively affected by the disease in Nigeria. Twelve (12) research locations were mapped out from four important cocoa producing states in Southwest, Nigeria for BPD assessment and forecast. The BPD forecast system “ETAPOD” accurately predicted BPD outbreak in Ondo (Ọwenà and Wáàsimi) and Osun (Adaàgbà, Iyánfọwọrọgi, and Owódé-Igàngán), but it failed to give accurate predictions for Ogun (Ǫbáfémi-Owódé) and Oyo (Mòyè village, Dáagi-Lógbà and Olórò village) states. The performance of ETAPOD was greatly affected by the credibility of the data fed into the system, this can be improved on. ETAPOD predicted BPD outbreak closely within the range of natural BPD occurrences.

Key words: Disease forecast, black pod disease (BPD) outbreak, total yield loss, ETAPOD, data credibility.