The reasons behind the debates and discussions on population growth and the impacts on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments have different motives, for instance ideologies or class struggle. The so-called North-South-Conflict is one reason behind the issue. In other words, developed countries are not willing to share the resources of the Third World countries with these countries, that is, the developed countries are protecting their economic, political and military hegemonies. Also, the hypothesis of Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 to 1834) and of his followers, the Neo-Malthusians is one reason behind the debates and discussions on population growth and the impacts on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments. Therefore, the allegedly alarming figures about world population growth in thousands and in millions per second, per minute, per hour, per day, per month or per year without the necessary infrastructure or registration systems are created purposely to divert discussions and debates on resources allocation, distribution, and sharing. However, the discussions and debates on world population growth impacts on economic development and environmental developments have vital influences on international relations as well as on public perception in solving current economic, social and environmental problems in the Third World Countries, especially in Africa. Hence, the discussions and debates about “overpopulation” in the Third World Countries serve as a means of preserving the existing economic, social and political structures in the world. In order to make the issue more concrete, two different locations and study areas (Addis Ababa and Ambo Town/Ethiopia) are selected. Moreover, two case studies (empirical studies) are applied in this Research Paper, that is, one case study is to test the different hypotheses about the population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments and the other case study is to conduct empirical study and observations about the causes of poverty in different selected areas of western Ethiopia for example Ambo District.
The concept of the title of this Research Paper: “The reasons behind the debates and discussions on population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments” has historical background. History tells us that debates and discussions on population growth and its negative impact on economic and social developments have started (as already noted above) officially or academically since Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 to 1834) published his Essay on Population Growth (1798).
In his essay, Malthus argued that since food production can increase at only arithmetic rate (arithmetic progression) whereas populations tend to grow at geometric rate (geometric progression), the number of people would increase faster than the food supply.” He warned that “if this growth is not checked, total population would eventually reach a resource limit which would result in decimation of sections of the population by famine, disease, or war.”
However, this scenario of Malthus' hypothesis had not happened neither in the United Kingdom (UK) nor in other western countries because agricultural and industrial revolutions had solved the economic and social problems of these countries.
But the followers of Malthus, that is, the Neo-Malthusians say that the hypothesis of Malthus happens in the Third World Countries today. The Neo-Malthusians try to bring extreme situations as an evidence for their hypothesis, for instance, the famine in Ethiopia in 1984/85, droughts and other environmental problems (Abeselom, (1995).
Therefore, the hypothesis of Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians is even today controversial. There are different scholars, organizations, governments and the media throughout the world that they participate in pro andcontra debates and discussions on population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments.
Moreover, there are international scholars that argue contrary to the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians. But there are also facts which support the arguments of the anti-Malthusians and ant-Neo-Malthusians scholars. The fact that this issue concerns almost the whole world, it is justifiable to engage with this topic.
Therefore, in order to find out scientific facts behind the debates and discussions on population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments, this research paper has apply the following methodology:
(1) After collecting the secondary data from various sources; that is, historical and present publications were reviewed,
(2) Two case studies (empirical studies and observations) were applied in this research paper; that is, one case study is to test the different hypotheses about the population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments and the other case study is to conduct empirical study and observations about the causes of poverty in some selected areas, for example around Ambo as well as in other Districts (in western Ethiopia). Moreover, this research paper has considered the current situation of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) as an additional example in order to prove or disprove the hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians.
(3) The hypotheses of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians as well as of the anti-Malthusian and anti-Neo-Malthusian scholars have been proved or disproved at the realities on the ground in Ethiopia as well as in the DRC,
(4) The Researcher of this paper has investigated the sources of the world population figures or numbers where they come from, because there is no infrastructure in the Third World Countries for instance in Ethiopia and/or in the DRC to know population statistics for example, birth rate, death rate, growth rate, etc.,
(5) Selected different locations and study areas are Addis Ababa and Ambo Town (Ethiopia), because Addis Ababa is the capital city of Ethiopia and Ambo is a Town of a District in western Ethiopia and both have the same problem concerning the lack of the necessary infrastructure of population statistics.
Research questions
As already explained earlier, the discussions and debates on population growth impact on economic, social and environmental developments as well as the population growth or population figures; that is, the sources of the population statistics are also central issues for this Research Paper. Therefore, this Research Paper wants to get the answers especially the first four questions as follows:
(1) Who is and what is behind the too much discussions and debates on population growth and its negative impacts on the economy, social, political, natural resources and ecological developments without evidence?
(2) Which arguments or hypotheses of the four different instructs of thought (see Background) regarding the impact of population growth on economic, social and environmental developments are supported by scientific evidence?
(3) Where do the many different world population growths or population figures in thousands and in millions per second, per minute, per hour, per day, per month or per year without the necessary infrastructure or registration system for population figures come from?
(4) Where do the UNICEF, UNFPA, UN Population Division, governments and Organizations of the western world get the world population figures without the vital events registration system and/or population census?
(5) How many people are there in the world today?
(6) For how many people has the earth carrying capacity?
(7) Why are many governments especially in the western world & the elites in the Third World Countries, institutions, part of the mass media/journalists, and individuals worry or concern about population growth in other countries, like for example in the African countries for in instance in Ethiopia?
(8) How did the Ethiopian Government works up to now without vital events registration system if vital events registration system plays a key role in planning socio-economic development programs and in providing different social services to citizens and making the justice and administration systems more effective. And ‘Vital events registration is instrumental in getting the right information and plan about future development agendas.’?
(9) Where did the Ethiopian government get the population figures up to now without the vital events registration system and/or population census?
(10) How do researchers or demographers evaluate the Chinese population policies, that is, the time of Mao Zedong from 1949-1976 and the time between 1979 and 2013 (2015)?
(11) Is there any scientific research on the population growth which shows different needs and trends to have children in urban and rural areas in Ethiopia?
(12) Does the Ethiopian Government have a Population Policy concerning this urban-rural population growth needs and trends to have children?
(13) Is there any strategic profile or plan about the demographic development or demographic changes in the Third World Countries like for example in Ethiopia in the short term, middle term and long term plans? This means that the Third World Countries like Ethiopia could face major demographic challenges in the future like the developed countries for instance Germany, China, etc. unless they plan intelligently for the demographic post-growth phase in order to ensure their populations’ continued well- being, and in some cases, their very survival.
Objectives of the study
General objectives
Generally, the objective of a research or a scientific study should be able to fill a gap, find out an answer or a solution for a problem, or disprove something or acquire new knowledge. Therefore, this research paper wants to examine the following hypotheses whether they are supported by scientific evidence or not, i.e. to prove or disprove the hypotheses of:
(1) The Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians,
(2) The Anti-Malthusians and Anti-Neo-Malthusians,
(3) The international Agricultural Experts of High Potential Productivity in Africa as an example of Ethiopia that they say:
“Ethiopia could feed the African continent with its agricultural potential.”
As already explained earlier, the goal of this Research Paper is to investigate the realities of the countries on the ground for example of Ethiopia and/or the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the hypothesis of the Malthusians & Neo-Malthusians or their arguments about population growth negative impact on economic, social, natural resource and environmental developments, so that we can discuss seriously on the real causes of poverty, depletion of natural resources and environmental problems especially in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa.
Specific objectives
The specific objectives of this research paper are:
(1)To find out the reasons behind the too much discussions and debates on population growth, and its negative impact on economic, social and environmental developments.
(2) To find out where does the world population growth or population figures in thousands and in millions per second, per minute, per hour, per day, per month or per year come from without the necessary infrastructure for population statistics, that is, without the vital events registration system?
(3) To prove or disprove all the above-mentioned hypotheses and their arguments about population growth impact on economic, social and ecological developments.
(4) Another goal of this research paper is to contribute to the clarification about the real causes of poverty, depletion of natural resources and environmental problems in the world but especially in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa.
Hypotheses of this research paper
The hypotheses of this Research Paper contradict to the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian hypothesis on one hand but support the hypothesis of the Anti-Malthusian as well as the Anti-Neo-Malthusian Scholars on the other hand as follows:
(1) There is no population law which governs all societies that valid in all times, like what the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians are teaching the world. But on the contrary, every development stage follows its own dynamic. Every population growth depends on different social, economic, political, cultural, ecological and psychological factors and these factors are again different at one place and at one time. That is why population growth shouldn’t be understood neither positive nor negative because population growth depends on the circumstances of the individual countries see for example China, Ethiopia etc. Therefore, herewith this Research Paper contradicts the hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians and their “population law”.
(2) The reasons behind the too much debates and discussions on the population growth negative impact on socio-economy, natural resources, and environmental aspects are not based on scientific evidence but rather on ideology and/or class struggle, that is, 1% rich class of the society against 99% poor class of the society. The fact that the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians want to protect their interests or their own privileges, they are not willing to share the wealth of the nations.
(3) The western world is primarily behind the too much discussions and debates on population growth and its allegedly negative consequences on the economy, social, political, natural resource, ecological developments in the Third World Countries, because the western world fears the development of the Third World Countries that these countries could process their raw materials in their own countries, that is, in the Third World Countries. The consequence would be shortage of raw materials in the majority of the western world. Because their economic and technology developments are depend on the raw materials of the Third World Countries.
(3) The myth of overpopulation serves as a means of preserving the existing economic and social structures.
(4) As Ester Boserup and Julian L. Simon said, population growth has a positive impact on economic and innovation of new technologies, when conditions of a country are favorable like for example China in the 1960s and 1970s and today and/or Ethiopia in the 1970s and 1980s and today.
As a logical consequence, this research paper supports the hypothesis of Boserup and Simon, because the examples of China and Ethiopia are evidences of the realities on the ground in these countries.Therefore, as a logical result the hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians is disproved.
Significance of the study
This Research Paper wants to justify the importance of the topic of this Research Paper: “The reasons behind the debates and discussions on population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments” as follows:
As already explained earlier, the too much debates and discussions on population growth and on its allegedly negative impacts on socio-economy and environmental aspects are not based on scientific evidence but rather on ideologies and/or class struggle, that is, 1% rich class of the society against 99% poor class of the society.
Therefore, this Research Paper would like to show the realities behind of this problem with the help of scientific evidence. As already noted ealier many Neo-Malthusian scholars in the western world argue that the high living standard in the western world should not be copied or applied by the Third World Countries, because, according to their arguments, the natural resources are limited and the environment would be deteriorated. But this argument is not the real reason.
The real reason for such argument is that the western world is worried about the trend of development of the Third World Countries that these countries could process their raw materials and/or natural resources for themselves so that the western world will not have enough raw materials to process. The result could be losing high living standard, privilege, etc.
The followers of the Malthusian hypothesis, thst is, the Neo-Malthusians are propagating birth control policy as the solution to the economic, social, political and ecological problems in the Third World Countries. However, the methods of such birth control are complicated that many women in the Third World Countries are forced to implement such method without any knowledge about the negative consequences on their health and/or childbearing. In addition this population birth control policy violets human rights and especially the right of women.
As already explained, the hypothesis of the Neo-Malthusians is not supported by scientific evidence, for example when the Neo-Malthusians say: “Slowing population growth is essential in reducing the outbreak of famine and achieving food security. […] rapid population growth overburdens already strained financial and natural resources. […] Poor African and Third World Countries have the highest growth rate in the world which puts them at increased risk of food crises.”
But the reality is different from that what the Neo-Malthusians try to convince the public with their simplest and plausible arguments and methods. But on the contrary to the Neo-Malthusian hypothesis, international studies certify that Ethiopia alone has the potential to feed the continent of Africa with agricultural products.
Although the hypothesis of the Neo-Malthusians is not supported by scientific evidence, the perception of many people in the world is that the world population “continues to grow at a rapid pace” and more poor people means deforestation, generate the bulk of the solid waste, depletion of natural resources and environmental problems.
For instance, Reynar R. Rollan shares such perception in his article: “Green City Solid Waste Management” as follows: “As the world’s population continues to grow at a rapid pace, so does the problem of solid waste management. This reality, along with its consequent negative environmental impacts, is nowhere more apparent than in Asian cities (Rollan, 2012).
Despite of the lack of scientific evidence of the hypothesis which says about “Over consumption” or “Too Many People, Too Much Consumption”, many scholars, especially in the western world argue about population growth in the Third World Countries and allegedly its negative impact on “environmental crisis” as the following example shows: “Four decades after his controversial book, The Population Bomb, Paul Ehrlich still believes that overpopulation — now along with over consumption — is the central environmental crisis facing the world. And, he insists, technological fixes will not save the day.”
Contrary to the hypothesis of Paul Ehrlich and other Neo-Malthusians, the current over consumption of energy is not caused by “overpopulation” in the Third World Countries but rather by the over consumption of the western world as the following example shows, that is, who consumes more energy, that is, the poor or the rich people? One example is Water Consumption:
One US-American citizen consumes over 420 liters per day and the average of one person in the UK now uses 150-liter water a day. This shows disproportional consumption comparing to one person in Ethiopia or Kenya or Nigeria.
Therefore, the “rich” countries consume resources like energy, water, generate huge solid waste, etc. disproportional more than the Third World Countries. Another example is electricity consumption:
In 2013 the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,908-kilowatt hours (kWh), an average of 909 kWh per month. Feb 20, 2015.
To the contrary Electric power consumption (kWh per capita) in Ethiopia was last measured at 51.96 in 2011, according to the World Bank. Here is another example which shows the disparity of energy consumption between the so called rich countries and the “poor countries”.
1. Kuwait 8,355.13 kWh in 2005
6. Canada 4,672.75 kWh in 2005
7. United States 4, 599.49 kWh in 2005
29. Germany 1,719.43 kWh in 2005
146 Nigeria 55.16 kWh in 2005
172 Ethiopia 10.1 kWh in 2005
179 Sierra Leone 3.91 kWh in 2005
According to the aforementioned, a German citizen had consumed 1,719.43 kWh in 2005, that is, 170.24 times more than an Ethiopian citizen in the same year.
Therefore, it is fact that those who consume more energy cause deforestation, depletion of natural resources, generating of huge solid waste and damage the environment as a whole. Despite these facts, many scholars, international organizations and part of the media in the western world argue the opposite, that is, the Third World Countries consume more energy and damage the environment.
But why do many scholars, international organizations and part of the media in the western world argue against the facts and what is behind their denial of facts? This and other facts are the reasons for this Research Paper to investigate what is and who is behind the too much debates and discussions on population growth and allegedly its negative impact on economic, social, political and environmental crisis in the world.
Therefore, this Research Paper would like to contribute to the clarification about the real causes of poverty, depletion of natural resources and environmental problems in the world but especially in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa, that is, on the reality which is supported by scientific evidence so that the 99% of the society, especially in the Third World Countries can be the beneficiary of this research work.
As already stated in the aforementioned parts of this Research Paper, the Statement of the Problem affects almost all the societies in every country but especially the 99% of poor class societies everywhere.
As already noted earlier, the reasons behind the debates and discussions on population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments have different motives, for instance ideologies or class struggle.
For example, there are groups or organizations which are eugenics and racism motivated. But there are also many people in the world who are innocent or naïve that they are convinced of the simplest and plausible arguments and methods of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians.
However, there are four different instructs of thought regarding the impact of population growth on economic, social and environmental developments. These are:
(1) Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian scholars say that population growth causes poverty, economic stagnation, environmental degradation, political unrest etc.
(2) Contrary to the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian scholars; that is, the Anti-Malthusian and Anti-Neo-Malthusian scholars like Ester Boserupt and Julian L. Simon understand population growth as a positive impact on economic and innovation of new technologies, when conditions are favorable.
(3) Karl Marx and the followers of Marxism; that is, the Anti-Malthusian and Anti-Neo-Malthusian scholars see population growth as a symptom of poverty which is caused by capitalism, that is, over exploitation. Marxism Population Theory says:
“A Surplus population” is a creation of capitalism and a necessary condition for its continuance”. Karl Marx argued that high fertility is a symptom, not a cause of poverty and he said further that only by bringing about a radical transformation in the underlying causes of poverty would living standards rise and birth rates begin to fall. […] Regarding the overpopulation, Marx states that it is a ‘necessity’ of the capitalist system and also the result of its expansionist nature.
(4) Some governments like the Chinese and Indian who understand population growth as economic and military power of their countries. For instance: “In the 1950s, Mao Tse-Tung urged his people to have lots of children to strengthen the country. […] Mao Tse-Tung envisioned China as a superpower.
A great nation would need lots of manpower behind its army and economy, so Mao encouraged the Chinese to multiply.” However, after Mao Zedong’s death, the new China’s government was worried by the population growth that China would be unable to feed her citizens. Therefore, the new Chinese government had introduced in 1979 a policy that limiting some families to having only one child. […] The highly controversial and often brutally enforced one-child policy was introduced by China’s Communist leaders in 1980 amid fears of a catastrophic population explosion.”
However, China abandoned in 2013-2015 the one-child policy after 35 years. Because: “China has brought in 'two-child policy' to tackle demographic time bomb. China will “fully implement a policy of allowing each couple to have two children as an active response to an aging population”, a statement published by Xinhua news agency on Thursday said. […]. Moves to loosen strict birth control rules are also a response to a demographic “time bomb” created by the one-child policy.
Experts warn that China’s 1.3 billion-strong population is aging rapidly, while the labour pool is shrinking. The country will have nearly 440 million over-60s by 2050, according to UN estimates, placing a massive strain on government resources.
Meanwhile, the working-age population – those aged between 15 and 59 – fell by 3.71 million last year, a trend that is expected to continue. If that trend is not reversed, “the future for China’s economy will look grim”, said Yi Fuxian, a demographer and outspoken critic of the one-child policy. Chinese experts expect the country's working population — estimated by the government to be roughly 915 million at the end of 2014 — to drop by around 40 million by 2030.”
Also, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees population growth as an advantage for the economic development in India and Africa. He said during the Third India–Africa Forum Summit in New Delhi, 29 October 2015 as follows:
“Both India and Africa have a major advantage in the sense that majority of the population in these areas is under the 35-year limit. […] He has said that this is a capital to be invested in keeping their future in mind. He has gone so far as to say that the coming century could very well be theirs if youth was the watchword for development. […] Two-thirds of India and two-thirds of Africa is under the age of 35 years. And, if the future belongs to the youth, then this century is ours to shape and build.”
Similarly said the Chairman of the “Munich Security Conference” (MSC) Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger during his opening address on April 14, 2016: ‘It [is] really high time for a renewed special focus on Africa. Africa's young and fast-growing population can offer enormous opportunities for its societies. If states can build infrastructures and institutions that match this growth, the 21st century will belong to Africa. If on the other hand, states fail to do so, the discontent and frustration of Africa's youth will fuel many of the security challenges we are already witnessing today – with horrific consequences on the continent, but also far beyond it (Ischinger, 2016).
In addition to the statement of Wolfgang Ischinger, the Ethiopian Foreign Minister Dr. Tewodros Adhanom said, in the conclusion of the “Munich Security Conference” (MSC) on 15.04.2016 that the young people in Africa are an asset if economic conditions would be favorable (Adhanom, 2016).
Although the president of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is against birth control, but the reason seems religious when he said birth control is against Islam tradition. He said that the Muslims should do what their God, their beloved Prophet says. ‘’We will increase our next generation and our generation increases” (Yücel, 2016). But the question is which arguments or hypotheses of the aforementioned groups are supported by scientific evidence? Therefore, this and other questions have been elaborated in the next chapters.
As already explained earlier, this research paper wants to prove or disprove the hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians as well as the hypothesis of the Anti-Malthusians with the help of the following methods:
(1) By evaluating the literature about this topic whether the hypotheses have scientific evidence or not.
(2) By comparing the realities on the ground of the countries with the hypotheses, that is, taking examples of some countries who have problems of food security despite potential richness in agricultural and mineral resources for example Ethiopia.
(3) By showing the hypothesis of the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian scholars that their hypothesis is collective.
This means, their hypothesis does not have specific or concrete studies on the concerning countries for instance the famine in Ethiopia in 1984/85 during the civil war is tied to population growth by many Neo-Malthusian scholars and reporters of many western mass media like Gwynne Dyer. Dyer(2009) on the famine in Ethiopia under the title “Ethiopia's famine tied to population growth” as follows:
“A quarter-century after a million Ethiopians died in the great hunger of 1984-85, the country is heading into another famine. The spring rains failed entirely, and the summer rains were three weeks late. But why is famine is stalking Ethiopia again? Country-wide, 20 percent of the population already depends on the dwindling flow of foreign food aid, and it will get worse for many months yet. What have the Ethiopians done wrong?
The real answer (which everybody carefully avoids) is that they have had too many babies. Ethiopia’s population at the time of the last famine was 40 million. Twenty-five years later, it is 80 million. You can do everything else right—give your farmers new tools and skills, fight erosion, create food reserves—and if you don’t control the population, you are just spitting into the wind. It is so obvious that this should be the start of every conversation about the country.
Even if the coming famine in Ethiopia kills a million people, the population will keep growing. So the next famine, 10 or 15 years from now, will hit a country of a 100 million people, trying to make a living from farming on land where only 40 million faced starvation in the 1980s. It is going to get much uglier in Ethiopia. Yet it’s practically taboo to say that. The whole question of population—instead of being central to the debate about development, about food, about climate change has been put on the ice.
The reason is that the rich countries are secretly embarrassed, and the poor countries are deeply resentful” (Dyer, 2009). As everybody can see the controversial discussions and debates on population growth and allegedly its negative impacts on economic, social, political and environmental crisis in the world, the literature reflects also pro & contra characters of the discussions and debates on population growth impact.
This means, different interest groups try to convince the public or the reader in order to follow their ideologies through the literature or mass media. The fact that there are four instructs of thought, eugenics and racism motivated groups and one innocent or naïve group who debate and discuss on population growth impact on economic, social, political and environmental developments, there is no evaluation in the literature about the hypotheses on the debates and discussions on population growth impact, that is, which hypothesis is supported by scientific evidence and which is not.
However, the literature about this topic is dominated by those who are rich, famous, influential personalities, organizations and/or institutions. For example, many famous and influential people in the western world, especially in the USA misuse their wealth and power to convince the public in order to be against population growth in the Third World Countries, especially in Africa. But Eugenics and Racism are also behind such campaign. The rich, famous, influential personalities, organizations and/or institutions hidden their real motives and give financial supports to many organizations, governments, academicians, etc. in order to influence the world that population growth has negative impacts on resources and environmental crisis for instance climate change.
Melissa Melton says that these famous and influential people in the western world “believe themselves to be above the rest of us” (Melton, 2012). Also Anthony C. LoBaido says the same like Melton about the influential people and organizations in the USA on the debates and discussions on population growth negative impacts on the resources and environmental crisis for instance climate change in the world as follows: “Many US influential people and organizations or “top U.S. foundations like Ford and Rockefeller, Ted Turner, founder of CNN, is also a major population-control sugar daddy for the United Nations”( LoBaido, 2000). Another US famous person, that is, Margaret Sanger had popularized the term ‘birth control’ and had opened the first birth control clinic in the United States, and established organizations that evolved into the Planned Parenthood Federation of America and (she was) A Member of Time Magazines most influential 100.”
“Margaret Sanger believed that, for the purpose of racial “purification,” couples should be rewarded who chose sterilization.” ‘More children from the fit, less from the unfit — that is the chief aim of birth control.’ However, according to Anthony C. Lobaido “Birth control policy is eugenics.” Also, the speech of the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban against Muslim immigrants to Europe in September and October 2016 seems eugenics population policy. Here are some examples of his speech as follows:
“Hungarian prime minister says migrants are 'poison' and 'not needed' ‘You’re DESTROYING Europe’ Hungary PM predicts ‘parallel Muslim society’ due to migration […] He said: “The uncontrolled influx destroys Europe and it doesn’t even help the migrants. It’s better for everyone to stay in their own territory. […] Mr Orban has repeatedly positioned himself as a defender of Christian Europe and has been highly critical of German leader Mrs Merkel’s decision to welcome millions of migrants from the Middle East. He said: “If we let this idea rule that will destroy Europe, and its culture and economic system too. And we don’t help those who left their home countries”(Agnes, 2016).
[…] “Muslim dominance of e [E]urope is simple mathematics says h [H]ungarys pm Jifeed.net. ... PM Viktor Orban prepares Hungary for war against forced immigration of Muslim fake refugees.... Muslims Population Increases Rapidly in Europe. None of... […] Hungarian PM Viktor Orban predicts that one day, there will be more Muslims in Europe than Christians due to "This is simple Hungary, the replacement rate is so low that "in a generation or two, the population will cut itself in half," says Ezra Levant of Is it racist for the Hungarian PM to say that he would prefer Hungary to stay Hungarian? Of course not, any more than it's "racist" to want your own family in your own”. Another group of people who may be innocent and/or naïve but erroneous convinced of the simplest and plausible arguments and methods of Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian scholars.
Generally, such innocent and/or naïve people say that high economic growth with rising population is not achievable.
Moreover, they are convinced that high population growth causes poverty. Such people are convinced of a simple example of a family situation which has some children let say two children and has a constant income. If this family adds another two children, that is, the family has now four children but the income remains constant.
In this case, each member of the family will get less share or benefit in the family. For example: When the family divides one bread into four members of the family then every member of the family gets 1/4 of it but if the family divides the bread into six members of the family then every member gets 1/6, that is, less than the previous. But the big question is why the income of the family remains constant or in other words, why does the family not buy or produce more than one bread?
As earlier explained, there are many different instructs of thought regarding the impact of population growth on economic and environmental developments. This means, there are different groups who discuss contro-versial in the literature about this issue, for example:
(1) The first group, that is, the majority in the literature and part of the media coverage are supporters of the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian hypothesis, that is, the “pessimist” group.
(2) The second group in the literature is against the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian hypothesis, that is, Anti-Malthusian hypothesis, that is, the “optimist” group.
(3) The third group in the literature is also against the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian hypothesis, that is, Anti-Malthusian and Anti-Neo-Malthusian hypothesis
(4) The fourth group in the literature is the hypothesis of the international Agricultural Experts of High Potential Productivity in Africa as an example of Ethiopia that they say: Ethiopia could feed the African continent with its potential. Also, the New York Times report shows that Ethiopia has one of the most fertile lands in the African continent. It has the potential to become the ‘food basket of the world“.
(5) Another group of international experts like for example Calestous Juma certify that African countries can produce much more food than what these countries need for themselves. Juma has written a book on the potential richness of agriculture of Africa. He said: „Stop demonizing foreign investors in agriculture, they are not grabbing land“: „The rising food prices are stimulating interest in investing in African agriculture.”
But these investments have been criticized as a new form of colonialism at best and downright land-grabbing at worst. A new report from the US-based Oakland Institute says that in 2009 alone, foreign investors leased or bought an area nearly the size of France (about 60 million hectares). […] Ethiopia has more than 74 million hectares of cultivable land. So far, only 15 million is cultivated. Bringing three million hectares of land into cultivation in the coming four years is a modest step in the country´s effort to foster economic transformation and does not represent misguided land allocation“
Therefore, the question is which group has scientific evidence for its hypothesis? Despite the lack of scientific evidences, some scholars and part of the mass media, especially in the western world are arguing that for example the Famine in Ethiopia in 1984 was caused by population growth. This means, they follow the opinion of the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian scholars.
However, this Research Paper is not convinced of the hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians, because their hypothesis is not supported by scientific evidence concerning the causes of poverty, depletion of natural resources and environmental problems.
Therefore, this Research Paper is convinced of the second, third and fourth groups (see Background). Because the facts on the ground of the countries support the hypothesis of these groups concerning the causes of poverty, depletion of natural resources and environmental problems as well as the solutions of these problems.
Statement of the problem
The fact that, there is no scientific evidence for the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian hypothesis which says that population growth causes poverty, economic stagnation, environmental degradation, political unrest, etc.
In addition to that, the hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians has two problems, namely:
(1) The comparison between food production and population growth, that is, the so-called arithmetic rate (arithmetic progression) and geometric rate (geometric progression) without scientific evidence on one hand and
(2) World population growth or figures without the necessary infrastructure for population statistics on the other hand.
Food production and population growth
The hypothesis of the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian scholars says:
“Food production can increase at only arithmetic rate (arithmetic progression) whereas populations tend to grow at geometric rate (geometric progression), then the number of people would increase faster than the food supply. If this growth is not checked, total population would eventually reach a resource limit which would result in decimation of sections of the population by famine, disease, or war” (Malthus, 1798).
Therefore, the Neo-Malthusian scholars argue that the famine for instance in Ethiopia in 1984/85, droughts, war, disease and other environmental problems in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa are evidences for their hypothesis.
But the question is, can drought or famine like for example the famine in Ethiopia in 1984/85 be a scientific evidence for the Malthusian or Neo-Malthusian hypothesis, that is, “population multiplies geometrically and food arithmetically” or is there a scientific evidence that shows such famine is the result of population “explosion”?
Although the famines in Ethiopia have other different causes, Gwynne Dyer has an “answer” for the cause of the famine in Ethiopia in 1984/85. He has written his article under the title: “Ethiopia's famine tied to population growth” as follows:
“A quarter-century after a million Ethiopians died in the great hunger of 1984 to 85, the country is heading into another famine. The spring rains failed entirely, and the summer rains were three weeks late. But why is famine stalking Ethiopia again? […] So why are we back here again? Country-wide, 20 percent of the population already depends on the dwindling flow of foreign food aid, and it will get worse for many months yet. What have the Ethiopians done wrong? The real answer (which everybody carefully avoids) is that they have had too many babies. Ethiopia’s population at the time of the last famine was 40 million. Twenty-five years later, it is 80 million. You can do everything else right—give your farmers new tools and skills, fight erosion, create food reserves—and if you don’t control the population, you are just spitting into the wind” (Dyer, 2009)
As already noted earlier, Gwynne Dyer's hypothesis is not supported by scientific evidence. Therefore, this research paper have discussed on the real causes of the famine in Ethiopia in 1984/85 and even in 2016 in the next chapters.
World population growth
The other problem of the hypothesis of the Neo-Malthusian scholars is the unreliable statistics or figures of the world population. “The world population (the total number of living humans on Earth) was 7.244 billion as of July 2014 according to the medium fertility estimate by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division and it is projected to reach 7.325 billion in July 2015. According to the most recent United Nations estimates, the human population of the world is expected to reach 8 billion people in the spring of 2024.” However, another estimation shows as follows:
“As of today, it is estimated to number 7.162 billion by the United States Census Bureau (USCB). The USCB estimates that the world population exceeded 7 billion on March 12, 2012.” But the important questions are:
(1) How many people are there in the world today?
(2) How many people has the earth carrying capacity?
The fact is, the United Nations Organization (UN) does not have any infrastructure or any means to conduct a population census to get the exact population sizes in the Third World Countries. Therefore, the UN gets the population data from the governments of the member countries and other organizations or companies like “Worldometers” (”a private company owned by Dadax”). However, the UN reports world population growth regularly as follows; that is, the UN projection shows that the world population will reach:
(1) 8.5 billion by 2030,
(2) 9.7 billion by 2050 and exceed
(3) 11 billion in 2100
According to the UN world population report’s projections, the current world population of are:
(1) 7.3 billion is expected to reach
(2) 8.5 billion by 2030,
(3) 9.7 billion in 2050 and
(4) 11.2 billion in 2100.
Moreover, the report reveals that during the 2015 to 2050 period, half of the world’s population growth is expected to be concentrated in nine countries:
(1) India
(2) Nigeria
(3) Pakistan
(4) Democratic Republic of the Congo
(5) Ethiopia
(5) Tanzania
(6) The United States,
(7) Indonesia and
(8) Uganda.”
However, such projections of world population are without any fact. Therefore, the question is, why scientists debate on such topic without scientific evidence? What is science all about then?
According to the UN, the 6 billion figure was reached on October 12, 1999 (“celebrated as the Day of 6 Billion”). “But as stated by the U.S. Census Bureau instead, the six billion milestones was reached on July 22, 1999, at about 3:49 AM GMT. Yet, according to the U.S. Census website, the date, and time of when 6 billion was reached will probably change because the already uncertain estimates are constantly being updated.”
In addition, the UN report shows the following “Previous Milestones” of world population growth without any source, that is, how and where these population growths or figures come from?
(1) 1 Billion: 1804
(2) 2 Billion: 1927
(3) 3 Billion: 1960
(4) 4 Billion: 1974
(5) 5 Billion: 1987
The question is, “are there too many people on the planet?”
Peter Kareiva said to the answer of this question as follows:
“Before you read any further, please answer the question in the headline. Finished? Now read on. I’m guessing that a lot of you answered yes. Now let’s think this through. We have 7 billion people on the planet.” However, the question is, does the scientist Peter Kareiva have a scientific evidence that “We have 7 billion people on the planet” on December 7, 2012? However, many people ask:
“Are there really seven billion or so people on earth?” Or “Are world population numbers exaggerated?”
Whatever the facts of the world population numbers are, everybody talks about rapid population growth and negative impact on economic, social, political and environmental developments in the Third World Countries but especially in Africa, despite the lack of infrastructure to register birth rate, death rate, internal migration and emigration (external) of the population of a country like Ethiopia.
The question is again, how can we say that the world population or for example Ethiopian population growths in hundreds, in thousands and in millions per second, per minute, per hour, per day, per month or per year without any evidence?
Usually, the UN is the source of many organizations or individual persons even of researchers, but the UN cannot create such population statistics of a country like for instance of Ethiopia without the registration system or infrastructure to conduct a reliable population census.
Therefore, to quote the UN is not reliable
This research paper has found out that the source of the majority of world population statistics or numbers even of the UN is “Worldometers” (”a private company owned by Dadax”).
Although there are no scientific evidences about the world population growth and carrying capacity of the earth, there are publications which are telling us about world population growth and the carrying capacity of the earth. For example, the authors of the book “The Limits to Growth” (by the “Club of Rome” 1972) say that “population growth is the cause of poverty (famine), depleting the planet's resources, global warming, acid rain, and other major problems.”
Also, Paul Ehrlich said that “the Earth has reached its carrying capacity. Only 10% chance of avoiding a collapse of global civilization" everybody can lead a decent life without everybody being fair." Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich have used even terms like “population bomb” (1968), “population explosion”, “overpopulation”. Ehrlich P and Ehrlich A say in their book „Population Explosion” as follows: “The Population Explosion vividly describes how the Earth's population, growing by 95 million people a year, is rapidly depleting the planet's resources, resulting in famine, global warming, acid rain, and other major problems.”
Moreover, Ehrlich P said in his book: “The Population Bomb” as follows: “The battle to feed all of the humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date, nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate...” Also, John Bongaarts argues the same like the above noted authors as follows:
“Population growth causes poverty, economic stagnation, environmental degradation, maternal mortality, political unrest etc. in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa. […] Population growth remains rapid in many poor countries. For example, the population of West Africa is expanding at an annual rate of 2.6% and is expected to be more than quadruple in size by the end of the century. The projected addition of one billion people to the region’s current population of 320 million is an obstacle to development and makes it difficult to be optimistic about the future of this and other regions with similar demographic and socio-economic conditions.”
However, such hypotheses should be proved by scientific facts otherwise it is not possible to have consensus on controversial topics like this.
Ethiopian population (demographic) developments
The majority of the sources of Ethiopian population (demographic) developments are from “Worldometers” (”a private company owned by Dadax”). As already noted earlier, there is no reliable population data about Ethiopian population growth, therefore, this Research Paper quotes also from the internet as follows:
“Ethiopia demographics profile 2014”:
(1) Population growth rate: 2.89% (2014 est. [estimated])
(2) Birth rate: 37.66 births/1,000 population (2014 est.)
(3) Death rate: 8.52 deaths/1,000 population (2014 est.)
(4) Total fertility rate: 5.23 children born/woman (2014 est.)”
Moreover, the development of Ethiopia's population (demographic) shows as follows:
(1) 1950: 18,128,034 citizens
(2) 1960: 22.15 million citizens
(3) 2007: 73,750,932 citizens
(4) 2010: More than 80 million inhabitants,
(5) “2011: 82,101,998,
(6) 2012: 84,320,987, +2.70%.
(7) 2013: 86,613,986, +2.72%...
(8) 2013: 86,613,986 (est. [estimated])
(9) Birth rate: 33.5 births/1,000 population...
(10) Growth rate: 2.9% (2013 est. [estimated])
(11) Fertility rate: 4.6 children born/woman ...”
Despite the fact that nobody knows how many inhabitants Ethiopia has; many organizations and the media have their own different population sizes of Ethiopia. Therefore, the following figures of Ethiopian population show that different organizations have documented or posted on the internet. The following figures of the Ethiopian population show that there are different figures even within the same years for example in 2010 or 2011 or 2012 or 2013. The reasons of the different figures even within the same years are depending on the interest of the organizations or institutions. Here are some examples of different figures or sizes of Ethiopian population:
(1) 2007: 73,750,932 inhabitants
(2) 2010: 80 million,
(3) 2010: 87.1 million
(4) 2011: 82, 825,000
(5) 2011: 85 million
(6) 2011: 89,858,696
(7) 2011: 89.39 million
(8) 2011:82,101,998,
(9) 2012: 84,320,987
(10) 2012: 80 million
(11) 2012: 91.73 million
(12) 2012: (85 million, 88 million, 90 million)
(13) 2013: 86,613,986
(14) 2013: 82,950 million
(15) 2013: 87 million
(16) 2013: 94.1 million
(17) 2014: 96,633,458
(19) 2016: 101,853,268 people (for more detail see below in the part of “Background”)
(20) 11.10.2016: 99 million inhabitants (according to the German national television broadcaster-ARD-“Tagesschau”) news service at 20:00 (Central European Time) or at 8:00 PM.
As already explained earlier, these figures of Ethiopian population are not obtained from the census, because there is no infrastructure to register the population. Therefore, people may think that these figures of population size are games for fun but unfortunately, these figures are the base for the population policy of the government and of many national and international organizations or institutions. Also, the following figures of Ethiopian population are different from the other figures even of the same year for example of 2011; that is, different figures are from different sources for the same year:
(1) 2010: 87.1 million
(2) 2011: 82, 825,000
(3) 2011: 85 million
(4) 2011: 89,858,696
(5) 2011: 89.39 million
“Demographics of Ethiopia”
(1) 2011: 82,101,998,
(2) 2012: 84,320,987
(3) 2013: 86,613,986
(4) 8/2012: 80 million
(5) 2012: 91.73 million people
(6) 6/2012: 85 million people,
(7) 6/2012: 88 million people and
(8) 6/2012: 90 million people
(9) 3/2013: 82,950 million people
(10) 3/2013: 87 million people
(11) 2013: 94.1 million people
(12) 2014: 96,633,458 people
(13) 2016: 101,853,268 people
“Ethiopia population (live) 2016/2017”
(1) 101,099,910 –before few seconds the population was 101,099,910 and within few seconds the population has “increased” 101,099,910 by 10 people (new comer); that is, 101,099,920.
(2) 03/2016, the time was 13:50 PM and the Ethiopian population was, according to the “Worldometers”: 101,099, 926 but at 14:00 PM; that is, after 10 minutes the Ethiopian population was 101,099, 972. This means, According to “Worldometers”, the Ethiopian population has “increased” by 46 “people” in 10 minutes because the clock was ticking per second.
According to “Worldometers”, the Ethiopian population reached in April 16, 2017 at 11:40 A.M.: 103,822,290 people. But according to another ‘’profile” of Ethiopian Population, the annual population growth is more than 2%. By this calculation Ethiopia will have more than 120 million people in 2030. However, the fact is, there is no automatic linear population growth law without interruption.
Demographic development of Addis Ababa
Despite the lack of reliable population data also for the capital city of Ethiopia,; that is, Addis Ababa, here are some figures of Addis Ababa's population (demographic) development which are obtained in the internet:
(1) 1994-10-11: 2,112,737 citizens
(2) 2007-05-28: 2,739,551 citizens
(3) 2/2010: 3 million citizens
(4) 2.979 million citizens
(5) 3,273,000 citizens
Here is another example of the problems to get a reliable population data in Ethiopia
The following figures of Demographic Development of Ambo (a small town in western Ethiopia about 114 km far from Addis Ababa) are unreliable like in other cities and towns of Ethiopia. Therefore, such problems show more clearly that the city administration (municipality) of Ambo Town and the Statistical Office of Ambo Town has their own estimations about the population size of Ambo Town as follows:
(1) 2007: 48.171 citizens
(2) 2013: 61.901 citizens
(4) 2016: 107.980 citizens
Normally, a country may need to know its population size and the population pyramid (population structure) in order to make an economic plan and to provide infrastructure in the country or in a region but such population statistics which is presented above has completely different purposes. But in order to conduct or present such detail exactly with comma of population growth, a country, for example, Ethiopia should have institutions like Municipality or districts like Kebele who can register:
(1) Birth rate
(2) Death rate
(3) Internal migration and
(4) Emigration (external).
Although Ethiopia does not have the infrastructure and institutions who can register birth rate, death rate, internal migration as well as emigration (external) and conduct reliable population census, many organizations and individual persons have their own population size for Ethiopia and also for Addis Ababa because they quote different unreliable sources.
Therefore, the Federal Government of Ethiopia has announced on 5th August 2016 that “National vital events registration system”, that is, birth, death, marriage and divorce will start on 6th August throughout the country. The Chairperson of the National Council Board for Vital Events and Registration said that “Introducing vital events registration system plays a key role in planning socio-economic development programmes and in providing different social services to citizens and making the justice and administration systems more effective. […] ‘Vital events registration is instrumental in getting the right information and plan about future development agendas.’
“UNICEF Representative to Ethiopia Gillian Mellsop also said that UNICEF is looking forward to the impact of the registration and certification of vital events, such as birth and marriage on the protection and well-being of Ethiopian children and the general population. According to her, vital events registration is essential for compiling statistics that are required to develop policies and implement services. The demographic data generated from such system is critical for development planning and decision making.”
However, the question is how can the government and other national and international organizations make a population policy and organize development plans in the country based on such unreliable and speculated population statistics?
There are some more questions which should be raised to the above quoted statements concerning the announcement to launch nationwide vital events registration system in Ethiopia for the first time in the history of the country (see in the chapter “Research Questions”).
However, the problem of such unreliable population data is not only in Ethiopia but also in all of the Third World Countries but especially in the countries of the African continent. Another example for the un-differentiated claim of the Neo-Malthusian hypothesis about the problems of the individual countries or regions shows the current situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
(1) The DRC is located in central sub-Saharan Africa and its size is: 2,344,858 square kilometres. Comparing to Ethiopia: 1,104,300 square kilometers. The DRC is the second largest country in the African continent. The DRC covers a land area larger than the combined areas of Spain, France, Germany, Sweden, and Norway.
(2) Life Expectancy in the DRC: 49 years (WHO 2011) comparing to Ethiopia 64 years (in 2012 estimated). “The life expectancy [of the DRC] at birth is 46 years for males and 49 years for females (UNO, 2005 -2010).”
(3) Literacy Percent: 67.2 (2011 estimated) comparing to Ethiopia 49.1% (2015 estimated)
(4) GDP per Capita of the DRC: U.S. $600 comparing to Ethiopia 505.05 USD (2013)
According to the literature (2015/2016), about 2.6 million people have become displaced and forced in the DRC to flee from their homes due to violence and conflicts among rebel groups.
“DR Congo has world's highest population fleeing conflict: A new report says the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) had the highest number of people displaced by conflict in the world in 2016. […] Out of the 6.9 million people driven from their homes by conflict, 2.6 million of them live in sub-Saharan Africa.”
“Did you know the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is one of the poorest countries in the world?”
For example, the World Food Programme had assisted in 2014 nearly 1.8 million vulnerable people in the DRC. Despite such vast mineral and agricultural wealth, the “DR Congo has a low level of human development, ranking 186 out of 187 countries, as of 2013, according to the Human Development Index (HDI).
According to the UN-World Food Programme the following “10 Facts (show) About Hunger In Democratic Republic of Congo:
(1) Most of the country’s 6.7 million hungry people live in five conflict-affected provinces in the eastern part of the country.
(2) Almost half of the country's children under five are stunted (short for their age).
(3) Twenty-three percent of children under the age of five and 14 percent of women are underweight.
(4) Due to on-going conflict in the DRC and the nearby region, there are 2.7 million internally displaced people (IDPs) and 120,000 refugees in the country.
(5) Between 2013 to 2014, 1.8 million IDPs have returned to their areas of origin, finding that their houses, schools and possessions had been looted or destroyed.
(6) Three million children under five years of age suffer from acute malnutrition.
(7) Forty-seven percent of children under the age of five and 38 percent of women suffer from anaemia.
(8) More than half a million pregnant or breastfeeding women suffer from acute malnutrition.
(9) The highest percentage of food insecure people (64%) can be found in the agricultural sector, which accounts for three-quarters of the country’s total workforce.
(10) In 2014, WFP assisted nearly 1.8 million vulnerable people in the DRC.”
According to the estimation of 2014, the DRC had 69.4 million people. “The population grew from only 39 million in 1992 to 66 million in 2009, despite its ongoing war. The largest city in the Congo is Kinshasa with approximately 7.8 million people.” But fact is there is no infrastructure to conduct population census also in the DRC like other countries for instance in Ethiopia, the population size of DRC is contradictory
However, the DRC is widely considered to be the richest country in the world regarding natural resources; its untapped deposits of raw minerals are estimated to be worth in excess of US$24 trillion but unfortunately the DRC is currently the “poorest” country in the world. “Congo (DRC) is the world's largest producer of cobalt ore and a major producer of copper and diamonds.
The Congo has 70% of the world's coltan, a third of its cobalt, more than 30% of its diamond reserves, and a tenth of its copper.”Although DRC is extremely rich in natural resources, this country is politically unstable, that is, civil war waged. […] “Agricultural production has stagnated since independence. The principal crops are cassava, yams, plantains, rice, and maize. The country is not drought-prone but is handicapped by a poor internal transportation system, which impedes the development of an effective national urban food-supply system. […].
By the mid-1990s, the production of the DRC's principal cash crops (coffee, rubber, palm oil, cocoa, tea) was mostly back in private hands. Commercial farmers number some 300,000, with holdings between 12 and 250 hectares (30 and 618 acres). Coffee is the DRC's third most important export (after copper and crude oil) and is the leading agricultural export.” For example:
(1) Another UN estimation (2011) shows 69.6 million and
(2) The 2012 estimation shows 73, 599,190.
The question is, how can the UN estimate the population growth or the population size of the DRC during civil war displaces of the population?
Therefore, these examples make clear that the different situations of Ethiopia and the DRC need individual scientific case studies about their problems.
But unfortunately, the Neo-Malthusian scholars, many organizations and part of the mass media, especially in the western world, fail to conduct scientific case studies on the individual countries or regions in the Third World Countries like in the African countries for instance in Ethiopia or the DRC.
The Neo-Malthusian scholars or academicians, many organizations and part of the mass media in the western world take a problem of a country like the famine in Ethiopia 1984/85 or the current situation in the DRC to justify their hypothesis which says population growth is the cause of the problems in these countries. However, as already explained above these problems have another cause rather than population growth.
Therefore, a problem of a country should not be automatically the evidence for the negative impact of a population growth on the economic and environmental developments of this country. In other words, a scientific research or study should be conducted on the causes of the problems of a country, for instance of Ethiopia or the DRC.
The facts that, the aforementioned-described examples of the problems of the countries like Ethiopia and the DRC have showed clearly that the Neo-Malthusian scholars, many organizations and part of the mass media in the western world do not have scientific case studies on the problems like the famine in Ethiopia 1984/85 or the current civil war situation in the DRC, the reality on the ground in these countries should disprove the hypothesis of the Neo-Malthusian scholars, many organizations and part of the mass media in the western world, that says population growth is the cause of these problems of these countries.
If the Neo-Malthusian scholars, many organizations and part of the mass media in the western world still argue, despite the facts in the aforementioned countries that the solutions of the famine in Ethiopia and the current civil war situation in the DRC is birth control, they are cynical.
But the deficit of the hypothesis of the Neo-Malthusian scholars, many organizations and part of the mass media in the western world to provide scientific evidence is not only for Ethiopia or the DRC but also for the Third World Countries as a whole. For example, the authors: Kate Wilkinson and Sintha Chiumia for Africa Check and Maeve Shearlaw ask the following question:
“How many people will live in Africa?”
“Projections for 2025 range from 1.397bn (billion) to 1.486bn (billion). By 2050, the number of people in Africa is expected to increase by another billion and by 2100 the United Nations (UN) forecasts there will be 4.185bn (billion) people on the continent.
These projections, known as medium variants, are the most reliable. Statisticians also calculate low and high variants, which according to the UN are as low as 2.826bn by 2100, or as high as 6.007bn. Or if fertility rates remain constant 17.221bn.”
Therefore, the answer of this Research Paper (to the question: “How many people live in Africa?”) is, nobody knows how many people currently live in the continent. However, many organizations, media and scholars claim that they know about the population figures of the African continent without any evidence.
Here are some other examples of estimations about the population growth of the African continent which are quoted from the following institutions. “Current estimates suggest there are about 1.13 billion people on the continent.
(1) The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) puts Africa’s population at 1.132 bn (billion)
(2) The US Population Reference Bureau’s (PRB) figure is 1.136bn and
(3) The World Bank says 1.13bn (but that excludes the Western Sahara).
As already noted earlier even these two institutions and the US government, that is;
(1) United Nations Population Fund (1.132-billion)
(2) World Bank (1.130-billion) and
(3) U S Population Reference Bureau (1.136-billion) estimate different population sizes of the African continent because there is no possibility to get the exact population number of any country in Africa like in other countries of Asia and/or Latin America.
But the question is, where did these institutions get such population numbers without the necessary infrastructure for population census?
Locations of the two different study areas
As already noted in the Introduction section of this Research Paper, the two different locations and study areas are Addis Ababa and Ambo Town (Ethiopia). Reasons to select these two study areas are:
First location, Addis Ababa is:
(1) The biggest as well as the Capital City of Ethiopia in to which influx many people almost daily from the rural areas as well as from small towns of the country in order to search for a job and a better life.
(2) But the question is how does the Addis Ababa City Government Statistical Office know exactly how many people live in Addis Ababa, despite the huge influx of people into the city without registration system or infrastructure to register the movement of the people?
(3) Fact is, nobody knows how many people live in Addis Ababa, but despite the problems of registration system, the city administration and other institutions or organizations have their own different estimations. For example:
(1) 2,112,737 inhabitants (according to the census 1994-10-11: CSA), 2,739,551 inhabitants (census 2007-05-28/ source: CSA),
(2) 3 million people (source: “OVERVIEW OF ADDIS ABABA CITY”,
(3) 2/2010), 2.979 million people (2011: source:
“CIA World Factbook, July 2014 est. [estimated]”),
(4) 3,273,000 inhabitants (census 2015-07-01/source: Internet) etc.
Therefore, Addis Ababa is the decisive example of the study of this Research Paper how or from where does the City Administration of Addis Ababa and other organizations get the population sizes or figures of the city or the towns or for the whole country (Ethiopia) and/or the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) without registration system and population census.
Second location, Ambo (a small town in western Ethiopia about 114 km far from Addis Ababa) is:
(1) The home of Ambo University and densely populated town,
(2) This town which is surrounded by small villages and it is therefore, influx many people from the rural areas into this town for searching jobs and a better life like in Addis Ababa and other cities or towns.
(3) The town is without any infrastructure to conduct population census or to register birth rate, death rate, emigration/migration growth rate. Therefore, nobody knows exactly how many people live in Ambo Town.
Method of data collection
(1) Secondary data was gathered from various sources such as records, regulations, laws, reports, etc. of both governmental and non-governmental organizations in Addis Ababa as well as in Ambo.
(2) Available secondary data from Books, journal articles, Research Papers, office report, sources from the Internet, etc. was also used to analyze and compare the existing scenario in the study areas.
(3) Two case studies (empirical studies and observations) were conducted in Ambo District and in other Districts of western Ethiopia.
(4) One case study was to test the different hypotheses about the population growth impact on economic, social, political, natural resources and environmental developments on the ground, i.e. about the causes of poverty in the selected location study area (Ambo District) and
(5) The other case studies or observations were conducted in some selected areas in western Ethiopia. Here are some examples of empirical findings or observations of the Researcher of this Paper during his journey from Ambo to Assosa (from 28.04.2016 to 02.05.2016.) These selected areas are: Ijaji, Bako (not far from Ambo), Nekemte , Mendi, Ghimbi, Nejo (Districts of Oromia State Region in western Ethiopia).
The main purpose of these data collections is to find out scientific evidence that serves to either support or to disprove a scientific theory or hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians.
According to the discussions and debates of different aspects which are conducted in this Research Paper results are determined as follows:
(1) One result of this Research Paper shows that the hypothesis of the Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians does not have scientific evidence or in other words it is not supported by scientific researches or studies.
(2) As a logical consequence a further result shows that the hypothesis of the Anti-Malthusian and Anti-Neo-Malthusian scholars, that is. Boserup’s and Simon’s, is supported by the realities on the ground in the countries for example in Ethiopia.
(3) Another result of this Research Paper shows that there is no reliable population statistics and population growth because there is no infrastructure or registration system in order to know the world population growth in thousands and in millions per second, per minute, per hour, per day, per month or per year.
This Research Paper has found out that the company “Worldometers” (”a private company owned by Dadax”) “fabricated” the world population data for example of Ethiopia. Therefore, how on earth adopt scientists, governments, international organizations, academicians, intellectuals and the media (journalists) fabricated population statistics which is created by some Governments, Organizations and private companies like “Worldometers”?
(1) The UN Population Division and the U.S. Census Bureau have contradictory world population sizes and/or world population growths.
(2) There is a big lie behind the too much discussions and debates about population growth and allegedly its negative consequences on the economy, social, political, ecological developments in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa.
(3) Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian scholars know very well about the real causes of poverty but unfortunately, they deny to tell the truth because they are afraid of losing their privileges and higher living standards. In other words, the debates and discussions on overpopulation serve as a means of preserving the existing economic and social structures.
(3) The answer of this research paper (to the question “how many people are there in the world”) is nobody knows, how many people currently live on the earth.
Because there is no infrastructure or institution like Municipality or districts who can register:
(1) Birth rate
(2) Death rate
(3) Internal migration and
(4) Emigration (external) in the Third World Countries for example in the African countries.
(5) As already explained earlier, the majority of the literature and the majority of the media are supporters of Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian hypothesis, therefore this Research Paper has found out scientific evidences which have disproved the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian hypothesis so that the result can give a chance to ask and discuss the reality on the ground concerning the facts about the causes of poverty, depletion of natural resources and environmental problems in the world but especially in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa in order to get solutions to these problems.
Although discussions and debates are conducted in many sections of this Research Paper up to now, this Research Paper would like to discuss on the real reasons of the too much discussions and debates on population growth and its negative consequences on the economy, social, political, ecological developments etc. Because there is no scientific evidence for the too much debates and discussions on population growth. and its negative impact on socio-economy and environmental aspects.
However, Neo-Malthusian scholars today divert the debates and discussions on the causes of poverty, economic stagnation, environmental degradation, maternal mortality, political unrest etc. from the real causeb to population growth.
Therefore, let us discuss on the real causes of poverty on the ground in the Third World Countries for example in Ethiopia openly, frankly not opportunistic and uncivilized egoistic, because history will ask us one day what we have done in our life history.
In order to get clarifications from the arguments of Fuecks and other authors this Research Paper asks the following questions for discussions:
(1) The western world can morally allow the Third World Countries’ economic growth for certain time, but based on the motto:”prosperity without growth” (as already mentioned earlier).
(2) The arguments of Fuecks and what Fuecks has quoted from other authors show that there is a relationship between the high living standards in the western world and the poverty in the Third World Countries, that is, there is a dependency.
(3) But what kind of relationship or dependency do the western world and the Third World Countries have?
(4) Why are the Third World Countries so poor?
(5) What do they lack/ What’s up with them?
In order to answer the aforementioned questions, it is better to know first where the wealth or the “richness of the western world” comes from, what the western world claims as if it were the owner?
The question is again, why are many governments (in the western world and the elites in the Third World Countries), institutions, many mass media/journalists and academicians especially in the western world worry or concern about population growth in the Third World Countries, like in African countries, for example in Ethiopia?
In other words, what is the concern or worry of many governments (in the western world and the elites in the Third World Countries), institutions, part of the mass media/journalists and academicians especially in the western world?
Is it:
(1) To “help“-poor people from the humanitarian aspect? Or
(2) To protect self-interest; i.e. their own privileges, that is, not to share the wealth of the nations?
Or is it because the western world is worried about the Third World Countries that these countries can process their raw materials and/or natural resources for them-selves so that the western world will not have any or few raw material left to process. The result could be losing high living standards, privileges, etc. in the western world?
Ralf Fuecks asks in his book (page 69 ff.) whether the “North” [western world] must shrink or reduce its high living standards so that the “South” [Third World Countries] can develop or not? Fuecks argues and quotes other authors that the western world must shrink or reduce its consumption and high living standard so that the Third World Countries can solve poverty and develop themselves.
Fuecks says that global justice or fairness is possible only through redistribution of the present existing wealth among the world population or nations of the world. According to Fuecks, this has the charm moral rigorism and political radicality.
The study describes the conclusion first with a proverb in Amharic (Ethiopian official language) which matches to the fabricated world population figures. The proverb says (a free translation by the researcher): “An Ox delivers a baby calf.” Or in German language: “That is made up out of thin air.”
(1) As already explained above, the Third world Countries like Ethiopia do not have the necessary infrastructure to conduct a reliable population census let alone to know the population growth per second, per minute, per hour, per day, per month or per year. The source of the fabricated population statistics is Worldometers” (” a private company owned by Dadax”).
(2) However, as already quoted earlier, Anthony C. LoBaido has described under the title: “The overpopulation lie“ who is behind the debates and discussions on population growth as follows: “The U.S. State Department and the United Nations are major players in this population game. Their measures are funded in large part by top U.S. foundations like Ford and Rockefeller. Ted Turner, founder of CNN, is also a major population-control sugar daddy for the United Nations, having cut a $1 billion check to the world body when conservatives in the U.S. Congress threatened not to pay off America’s back dues to the U.N. if those dues would be used to set up abortion clinics overseas."
(3) Therefore, many scholars or academicians like Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich use terms like “population Bomb”, “population explosion”, “Overpopulation” etc. for the Third World Countries like for example Ethiopia without any evidence because these countries do not have such infrastructure or registration system:
(4) It is already noted earlier, that the source of the world population growth in thousands and in millions per second, per minute, per hour, per day, per month or per year without the necessary infrastructure or registration system for population statistics comes from Worldometers” (a private company owned by Dadax: Source: Internet).
Therefore, “Worldometers” (a private company owned by Dadax) is the source of the fabricated population sizes and growths of Ethiopia as well as the world.
The reason behind the creation of fabricated world population growth as “explosion” growths is to divert the real causes of the social, economic and environmental problems in the world but especially in the Third world Countries for instance in the African countries.
Therefore, the real reasons behind the discussions and debates on the relationship between demographic change and economic outcomes are the question of distribution of resources in the Third World Countries, as Fuecks has already explained above. Fuecks has suggested in his book (page 69 ff.) that the western world must shrink or reduce its high living standards in order to solve poverty and develop the Third World Countries.
The reasons why many governments, Organizations, part of the mass media/journalists and academicians especially in the western world worry or concern about population growth in other countries, like for example about African countries are not to “help“-poor people from the humanitarian aspect but rather to protect self-interest; that is, their own privilege, in other words not to share the wealth of the nations.
(1) Also, the too much debates and discussions on population growth and negative impacts on the economy, social, political and ecological developments in the Third World Countries for instance in Ethiopia are not supported by scientific evidence.
(2) Such discussion seems rather on ideology and/or class struggle, that is, 1% rich class of the society against 99% poor class of the society. In other words, The Malthusians and Neo-Malthusians want to protect their interest or their own privilege. They are not willing to share the wealth of the nations.
Hence, the real reason behind the too much discussions and debates about population growth and allegedly its negative consequences on the economy, social, political, ecological developments is that the western world is worried about the trends of economic and political developments in the Third World Countries, and because the Third World Countries could process their mineral and agricultural raw materials in their countries. Actually they have already started to process their raw materials and/or natural resources.
However, the consequence is that the western world may not have enough or any raw material left to process in their own countries. The result could be losing high living standards, privileges, etc. in the western world. The result could also mean losing of economic and political power or hegemony of the western world and shifting the power to other regions.
This could be the reason why some governments in the western world, Neo-Malthusian scholars, some media, and international organizations or institutions, especially in the Western World today, divert the debates and discussions on population growth from the real causes of poverty, that is, internal and external unbalanced or unfair economic, social and political situations of a country or a region to population growth as the cause of poverty, economic stagnation, environmental degradation, maternal mortality, political unrest etc. (Bongaarts, 2016).
Moreover, lack of awareness, consciousness, equal opportunity to have access to education, to work, etc. is causes of poverty. But exploitation is also one of the main causes of poverty in a society. Therefore, the biggest lies of many scientists, academicians, intellectuals, politicians and media (journalists) are behind the too much discussions and debates about population growth and allegedly its negative consequences on the economy, social, political, ecological developments in the Third World Countries for instance in Africa.
Instead of discussing to solving these real causes of poverty in the Third World Countries like in Ethiopia (see the example above), Neo-Malthusian scholars like Paul Ehrlich, Bongaarts, etc. recommend birth control as the solution for such poverty but this is cynical.
The big question is why the Neo-Malthusian scholars do not mention such internal and external causes of poverty as causes of poverty in their discussions and debates on poverty (see Paul Ehrlich, Bongaarts)?
As a conclusion, the discussions and debates about overpopulation in the Third World Countries serve as a means of preserving the existing economic and social structures in the world.
The question is what is science and what is its function, if many scientists do not work on scientific evidence or facts?
It is tragic that especially scientists adopt or accept unreliable source and participate in discussions and debates on such fabricated data about population growth (figures) without any reliable source and argue about the negative impact of population growth on economic and environmental developments.
(1) Scientists should be objective and fight against opportunism or self-interest. They should not adopt or accept any fabricated data.
(2) Governments like Ethiopian should not adopt or accept any fabricated data for instance about population growth from fabricated sources.
(3) Governments should have their own reliable data about issues of their countries. Also, readers should publicize only facts but not what they believe or feel.
Therefore, scientists or researchers should have a common law or norm which governs them in order to understand each other otherwise anybody can call himself or herself as a scientist and claim his/her hypothesis as a scientific theory or scientific research without fulfilling the criteria of it.
Although the issue of this Research Paper concerns all the Third World Countries, it is not possible to investigate the detail cases of all these countries. Although the Neo-Malthusians apply their hypothesis in the Third World Countries without differentiation of the situations of these countries, this Research Paper has focused on the situation of Ethiopia but also a limit consideration is conducted about the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The authors have not declared any conflict of interests.
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