Abstract

This paper empirically explored climate change, its related impact on rice agriculture and proper policy- related strategies and mechanism. Our current assessment provided the expected climate change impact based on observational records of inter-annual variability in precipitation and warming climatic factors up to the year 2080. In this study, an analysis of the impact due to climate change and vulnerabilities is performed using Global Circulation Models together with Crop Modelling to represent a range of plausible climate scenarios. The approach used follows a bottom-up strategy, focusing on the vulnerability of Malaysian rice agriculture under various climatic conditions and gives a wide range of potential climate outcomes for rice agriculture in Malaysia. Our projections generated likely future changes and uncertainties on rice production, the potential path for planning strategies and, finally, prioritizing requirements and influences in investment decisions to reduce vulnerabilities. The data is discussed and can be used for climate-related agriculture policies in Malaysia and elsewhere.

Key words: Climate change, rice agriculture, long-term scenario analysis, prioritizing mechanism and decision, policy strategy.