Strains among the states of Central Asia over using the region’s scarce water resources are increasing. A major controversy is Rogun dam (RD) on the Vakhsh River, a tributary of the Amudarya River. The intent of RD is to supply energy revenue for Tajikistan, but a side effect may be the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan. Future water shortage may cost Uzbekistan over US $600 million annually in losses from agriculture, reduce the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2%, and may result in 300,000 people unemployed. If Uzbekistan changes its present water use practices and increases its water use efficiency, potential losses from water shortage may be reduced by 40%. Key words: Amudarya, Central Asia, economic loss, employment, gross domestic product (GDP), Rogun dam, scenario,Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, water.