Abstract

The objective this study was to analyze the dry and wet spell of the main and small rainy season in the eastern part of Ethiopia, West Haraghe. Markov Chain model was employed to investigate the extent and characteristics of the dry and wet spell in the study sites. Accordingly, the results exhibited that the chance of having wet dekades is relatively higher (greater than 50% of probability of occurrences) during last of June to the start of October for all the study locations (Hirna, Asebe Teferi and Meios). The probability of having wet after wet is also fairly enough that farmers can take significant agricultural operations, like planting during the start of the season, second dekade of June. The probability of having wet during belg is however very low (usually less than 40%). But the soil moisture from the season could help farmers start plough earlier so that farmers can have the full advantage of the main rainy season, without wasting moisture for other activities.

Key words: dry, probability, Markov chain, probability, spell