Abstract

Using estimation-projection package (EPP) and spectrum, the model was developed based on different data sources. Four scenarios were introduced, including minimum and maximum estimations, plus most realistic scenario. In the fourth scenario (R2), data of studies with adequate quality were applied. The objective of the study is to estimate and project HIV/AIDS in Iran up to 2014. Based on the main scenario R2, the estimated prevalence of HIV infection among adults was 0.16% (0.08-1.03%) in 2009. It will slightly decrease to 0.15% (0.06-1.08%) in 2012. With respect to the number of infected people with HIV, the estimated number was 89,000 and 106,000 for 2009 and 2014 respectively. There were estimated to be approximately 7,000 new cases annually. The highest trend of HIV was estimated to be a shift from IDUs to FSWs, and the estimate is that new infected cases via unsafe sex will increase in the future, while over time, the trend with respect to transmission via unsafe injection will decrease. We expect the HIV epidemic in Iran to remain almost constant at concentrate level. However we believe that the pattern of transmission will change from that of unsafe injection to unsafe sexual contact.

Key words: HIV, AIDS, epidemiology, modeling, projection.