The objective of this study was to estimate the relationship between paddy yields and climatic variables using national-level time series data. ARDL Bound test and Granger non-causality tests were performed. The overall findings reveal that three climate variables have substantial effects on the rice yield. The study finds that cointegration exists in the rice yields-maximum temperature-minimum temperature-rain falls linkage for Nepal over the sample period 1971-2014. It also finds a positive and significant relationship between rice yields and rain falls i.e. 1 mm increase in rainfall, increases rice yields by 0.65%, holding all things constant. Nonetheless, the influences of maximum temperature and minimum temperature are inconspicuous compared with that of rainfall. Causality test shows that the relationship between rice yield and rainfall is unidirectional. It implies that rainfall cause rice yield. Given these effects of temperature on rice crops and increasing climate change vulnerabilities, policy makers should fund the research and development of temperature tolerant rice varieties, particularly for the development of rice yield.

Keywords: Climate Change, Rice Production, Nepal, Time Series Analysis, ARDL Model