Journal of
Public Health and Epidemiology

  • Abbreviation: J. Public Health Epidemiol.
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 2141-2316
  • DOI: 10.5897/JPHE
  • Start Year: 2009
  • Published Articles: 569

Full Length Research Paper

Formula for estimating incidence of chronic diseases from prevalence, mortality, and other indices from survey

Koujirou Inoue
Bihoku Public Health Center, Zip code: 716-8585, Tikanori Ochiaicho, Takahashi City, Okayama Prefecture, Japan.
Email: [email protected]

  •  Accepted: 07 February 2012
  •  Published: 30 June 2013

Abstract

A theoretical formula was devised to calculate the age-specific estimated incidence (ASEI) rate of chronic diseases using consecutive-year data on disease prevalence and death rate. Data on the rate of persons who had suffered from one disease but died from another disease (RPDA) were retrieved from the database of a public health center. The ASEI rate of diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension among older age groups was found to be negative. After correcting for RPDA, the ASEIs of DM became positive or nearly 0 for this age group. It is surmised that the negative ASEIs of hypertension could be improved by considering the multiple diseases of a patient in the patient survey and finding through practicable research in the same patient survey, the rate of persons who suffered from a disease that developed into another disease (RPCA). Additional research efforts that include other factors such as the estimated cure rate (ECR) and the estimated potential incidence ratio (EPIR) were discussed. The formula for the ASEI was consequently arrived at by taking all of these elements of the RPDA, RPCA, ECR, and EPIR into consideration.

 

Key words: Incidence, prevalence, cure rate, rate of persons who had suffered from one disease but died from another disease (RPDA), rate of persons who suffered from a disease that developed into another disease (RPCA), survey.