Scientific Research and Essays

  • Abbreviation: Sci. Res. Essays
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1992-2248
  • DOI: 10.5897/SRE
  • Start Year: 2006
  • Published Articles: 2768

Full Length Research Paper

Modelling the effect of screening on the spread of HIV infection in a population with variable inflow of infective immigrants

Issa Shabani1, Estomih S. Massawe1* and Oluwole Daniel Makinde2    
1Mathematics Department, University of Dar es Salaam, P. O. Box 35062, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. 2Institute for Advance Research in Mathematical Modelling and Computations, Cape-Peninsula University of Technology, P. O. Box 1906, Bellville 7535, South Africa.  
Email: [email protected]

  •  Accepted: 08 August 2011
  •  Published: 19 September 2011


This paper examines the combined effects of screening and variable inflow of infective immigrants on the spread of HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome) in a population of varying size. A nonlinear deterministic mathematical model for the problem is proposed and analysed qualitatively using the stability theory of differential equations. The results show that the reproductive number R0 >1 as the rate of inflow of infective immigrants increases leading to persistence of the disease in the population. However, the presence of screening greatly reduces the spread of HIV/AIDS.Numerical simulation of the model is implemented to investigate the sensitivity of certain key parameters on the spread of the disease.


Key words: Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome, screening, infective immigrants, reproductive number, stability analysis, numerical simulation.