Abstract

A Bayesian approach is applied to conduct a seismic hazard analysis in Afar Triple junction, resulting in a spatial distribution of the probability of exceedance in 100 years for earthquakes of MSK intensities VI and VII. The highest values of the exceedance probability for intensity VII are relatively scattered, showing spatial distribution that conforms with the RRR (rift-rift-rift) relative translational and rotational motions of the three bounding (Main Ethiopian Rift-Southern Red Sea Rift-Gulf of Aden Rift). The spatial distribution of the probability of exceedance for intensity VI is similar, but in scope. Iso-curves of the probability of exceedance for intensity VI seem to strike in a NW and NE direction while the intensity VII distribution is characterized by NW, NE and E-W directions. The map of spatial distributions of the probability of exceedance indicates specific areas of high seismic hazard in the future in the study area.

Key words: Afar depression, Bayesian seismic hazard assessment, rift.