Abstract

This paper is mainly according to Bayesian formula and using Bayesian method to estimate parameter truth-values of three-parameter Weibull distribution to achieve material reliability evaluation. The parameter values estimated by maximum likelihood method as the prior information of Bayesian estimation, assume that the parameter obeys a certain distribution and let the certain distribution as the prior distribution of parameter, and the three-parameter Weibull distribution is known, so the posterior distribution function of the parameter can be obtained. According to Bayesian estimation, the maximum posteriori estimation is chosen as the truth-value of the estimated parameter, the lifetime data are substituted into the truth-value estimated function of reliability and the theoretical values of the reliability can be got. Case study shows that the Bayesian method has general applicability to the material reliability evaluation.

Key words: Material lifetime, test assessment, three-parameter Weibull distribution, Bayesian method.