Scientific Research and Essays

  • Abbreviation: Sci. Res. Essays
  • Language: English
  • ISSN: 1992-2248
  • DOI: 10.5897/SRE
  • Start Year: 2006
  • Published Articles: 2768

Full Length Research Paper

Quantified risk assessment modelling of aircraft landing operations

Olja ÄŒokorilo    
Department of Air Transport, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, Serbia.
Email: [email protected]

  •  Accepted: 30 August 2011
  •  Published: 19 September 2011


This paper developed a risk-based modelling approach to enhance safety in the region around the airport that could be affected by an aircraft accident during the landing phase. Special attention was given to the following aspects: A strategic approach to improve airport safety, which includes the use of failure and hazard analysis techniques and fast time simulation modelling, and safety of land side operations. This analytical approach determined the area affected by different probabilities of accident occurrence (frequency of occurrence of a defined hazard). The mathematical model presented in this paper takes into consideration items determined to be important to understanding the risk of an aircraft crash into certain facility. The probabilistic approach to risk assessment was based on magnitude function that would be determined with reference to a number of aircraft operations/flights; crash probabilities; aircraft characteristics; facility characteristics; crash impact and facility damage. The final product of this research was a quantitative tool that can be utilized both in airport planning and in Safety Management System (SMS) implementation.


Key words: Safety management system, aircraft landing, risk assessment modelling.