Abstract

Risk analyses made in an area of seismic activity are of great importance in determining earthquake occurrence intervals and recurrence periods. Several methods, some of which include statistical methods, have been developed for this purpose. Gamma, Weibull distributions and Markov, Poisson, Gumbel are the most frequently used methods in this regard. In this study, instrumental records of 73 earthquakes of Ms ³ 4 which occurred in Denizli (Southwest Turkey) Region were investigated. These earthquake records were obtained from the Turkish Earthquake Research Department (ERD). To explain the seismic activity of the area, the relationship between magnitude and frequency was explained by using earthquake distribution in time. The magnitude-frequency relationship of the study area was calculated by means of the “Log N = 5.91 – 0.97 M” equation. Occurrence probability and recurrence periods of the earthquakes were computed by utilizing Poisson, Gumbell and Exponential Distribution Models and the results were correlated. The recurrence period of a 5.2 magnitude earthquake was determined as 10.4 years with the exponential distribution models. Poisson and Gumbel models, on the other hand, indicated 29.0 and 9.64, respectively.

Key words: Denizli Earthquake return period, Exponential distribution function model, Gumbel model, Poisson model, Seismic risk.