Abstract

In this paper, we consider diffusion process of new services in the residential market. We described the main influences and decision factors of new telecommunication services adoption. In order to forecast the adoption of new service, diffusion theory is applied. Building upon the Bass diffusion model, we proposed an innovative approach, which encompasses a new model for residential market potential estimation. Based on such analyses, we performed the forecast of Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) demand in the Serbian market until the end of the year 2012. Such forecast are not only important for the providers introducing the innovation service, but also for all others that provide related services that complement or substitute for the innovation.

Key words: Diffusion theory, forecasting, Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), market potential, operator.