The over exploitation of forest reserves has led to a decline in the volume of logs of commercial quality timber supplied to the sawmilling industry in Nigeria. As such, many sawmills are becoming moribund. Therefore, this study examined the volume and number of logs of 15 species supplied to sawmills in the Benin metropolis between 2010 and 2015. Data used for this study were collected from 11 randomly selected sawmills using proportional allocation, in Egor and Ikpoba-Okha Local Government Areas of Edo State, Nigeria. Data were analyzed using trend analysis. The four models tested include: Linear, quadratic, exponential decay and S-curve models. The fitted trend models were assessed based on: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD). The results showed that the volume of logs supplied decreased from a total of 169,568.08 m3 in 2010 to 83,220.19m3 in 2015. The percentage change in total volume between 2010 and 2015, for all species was 50.92%. The Quadratic model was found to be the best model for all species. It is concluded that proper afforestation and reforestation programs should be embarked upon by the government including other key stakeholders.
Keywords: Volume of log, sawmills, trend analysis, timber species, forest reserve.