Abstract

The pandemic potential of influenza A (H1N1) has required decision makers to act in the face of uncertainties. A deterministic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was developed to study the spread of H1N1 using population data from the Ashanti region of Ghana. We assumed the population to be constant with birth rate equals death rate and they interact freely (homogeneous mixing). We determined the equilibria and stability of the equilibria with the aim of finding threshold conditions under which the disease spread or die out and illustrate the outcome with numerical solutions. Our results suggest that vaccinating 0.64% of the susceptible population can significantly control the spread of the disease.

Key words: Vaccination, stability, basic reproduction number, homogeneous mixing.